EMEA Morning Briefing: Trump, Iran Trade Threats Over Strait of Hormuz

Dow Jones03-23

MARKET WRAPS

Watch For:

EU FCCI flash consumer confidence indicator; trading update from Exor

Opening Call:

European stock futures fell early Monday. Asian stock benchmarks fell; the dollar was little changed; Treasury yields rose; while oil futures gained and gold fell.

Equities:

Stock futures point to a lower open at the start of the week as new threats of escalation from both President Trump and Iran threatened to intensify the conflict.

Trump made his threat in a social-media post late Saturday, saying that if Iran doesn't fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. would act.

Trump's deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has placed a 48-hour ticking time bomb of elevated uncertainty over markets, said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG Australia. If the ultimatum is not walked back then global equity markets are likely to extend last week's falls as oil prices spike higher again, he said.

Forex:

The greenback benefits from its safe haven status and U.S. energy independence, CBA said. The "USD will largely be a function of news about the Iran war in the absence of important U.S. economic data this week," the bank added.

Bonds:

The ongoing rise in developed-market bond yields is probably overdone, exacerbated by "positioning washouts," said Pepperstone senior research strategist Michael Brown. Still, talk of government support schemes to cushion the impact of higher energy prices will add to concerns about mounting pressure on government budgets worldwide.

It is safe to assume those economies that were in the worst fiscal shape pre-crisis will be underperformers here, Brown said. That leaves gilts, in particular, exposed to further downside if government spending taps are turned back on, he said.

Energy:

High oil prices are expected for longer, said Goldman Sachs ' commodities research team, which assumes that flows through the Strait of Hormuz stay at only 5% of normal levels for a longer six-week period before a gradual one-month recovery.

GS now expects 2026 Brent prices to average $85 a barrel, up from $77 a barrel projected previously, and WTI to average $79 a barrel, up from $72 a barrel forecast previously.

Metals:

Gold's ongoing pullback may offer "staggered" long-term accumulation opportunities at lower levels, Phillip Nova's Priyanka Sachdeva said.

The commodity's further fall below $4,400 an ounce has "opened the door" to the 200-day moving average of $4,154 an ounce on the downside, the senior market analyst said. This $4,154 level is emerging as a probable downside target before any meaningful stabilization. "This correction is a golden opportunity for staggered entry by long-term buyers," she added.

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Copper prices could have much further to fall if an energy shock from the Middle East conflict leads to a recession, said Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemina. The LME three-month copper is already down by 11% so far this month.

"The bottom line is that a recovery in the copper price depends on de-escalation and relative peace," said LaFemina.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

Iranian Missile Strikes Are Costing Big Oil Billions in Lost Revenue

When Iranian missiles struck the Pearl gas-to-liquids facility in Qatar, they knocked out one of Shell's crown jewels, a giant plant that is among the most sophisticated and profitable businesses in the company's sprawling global operations.

The plant was so heavily damaged that one of its two production lines is expected to be shut for at least a year, Qatar said.

The Fed's Most Awkward Leadership Transition Is Coming

Kevin Warsh is facing one of the most awkward Federal Reserve leadership transitions in decades.

The economy has grown more complicated than when he promised interest-rate cuts last year while campaigning for President Trump to nominate him for the job. Even before the war in Iran sent energy prices higher, the Fed's preferred inflation measure was heading in the wrong direction. The war threatens to push inflation higher still in the coming months, and investors now view rate increases to be more likely than cuts this year.

Trump, Tehran Exchange Threats

Iran said it would target critical infrastructure if President Trump follows through on his weekend threat to "obliterate" the nation's power plants if Tehran didn't reopen the Strait of Hormuz within days.

The escalating rhetoric set off alarm bells across the Middle East, with oil-exporting Gulf countries saying that Iranian reprisals could further endanger the world economy.

Iran Brings Europe Into Range With Missiles Fired at Diego Garcia

When Iranian missile crews rolled two of their largest weapons out of hiding and launched them at the U.S.-U.K. Diego Garcia military base 2,500 miles away, they revealed the Islamic Republic had longer-range missiles than many analysts had realized-and a leadership that was no longer interested in hiding them.

The attack in the early hours Friday was Iran's first-ever use of intermediate-range ballistic missiles, ones that fly far enough to hit much of Europe. The Trump administration had cited Iran's work on missiles that could one day carry nuclear weapons to the U.S. among its reasons for going to war.

Poste Italiane Unveils $12.50 Billion Offer for Telecom Italia

State-controlled postal service Poste Italiane has made a $12.50 billion offer to acquire Telecom Italia.

The postal-services company said Sunday that it was offering a combination of cash and shares, with Telecom Italia shareholders to receive 16.7 euro cents in cash and 0.0218 newly issued Poste Italiane shares for each share held.

Activist Elliott Builds Big Stake in Chip-Design Software Maker Synopsys

Activist investor Elliott Investment Management has a multibillion-dollar investment in Synopsys, the big chip-design software maker, according to people familiar with the matter.

Elliott plans to engage with Synopsys to push the business to make more money from its software and services, the people said. Synopsys's customers include Intel, Alphabet and Tesla.

Mark Zuckerberg Is Building an AI Agent to Help Him Be CEO

Mark Zuckerberg wants everyone inside and outside his company to eventually have his or her own personal artificial-intelligence agent. He is starting with himself.

Zuckerberg, the chief executive of Meta Platforms, is building a CEO agent to help him do his job, according to a person familiar with the project.

Tesla, SpaceX Plan to Build New Chip Factory in Texas

Elon Musk said Tesla and SpaceX will team up to build a massive new chip factory in Austin, Texas, to support his far-reaching plans for artificial intelligence, robots and human settlements in space.

Musk said Saturday that the Terafab facility is expected to make chips Tesla would use in its vehicles and in the Optimus humanoid robots the company is increasingly focusing on. It will also make chips optimized for use in space, where SpaceX is planning to deploy massive numbers of satellites capable of handling AI computing tasks.

Write to singaporeeditors@dowjones.com

Expected Major Events for Monday

05:30/NED: Mar Consumer confidence survey

05:30/NED: Feb House Price Index

07:00/DEN: Mar Consumer expectations

07:00/NOR: Feb Credit Indicator C2

08:00/SPN: Jan Trade Balance

08:00/SPN: Jan Industrial Orders & Turnover

09:00/POL: Feb Retail Sales

10:00/BEL: Mar Consumer Confidence Survey

10:00/MLT: Feb RPI

11:00/IRL: Feb WPI

13:00/POL: Feb Broad money M3

15:00/EU: Mar FCCI Flash Consumer Confidence Indicator

15:59/GRE: Jan Balance of Payments

16:59/SPN: 4Q Quarterly Balance of Payments

17:59/POR: Jan ICSG Copper Report

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This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 23, 2026 01:12 ET (05:12 GMT)

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