The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0616 GMT - Japan's core consumer inflation is expected to have slowed below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the first time in nearly four years. Government data due Tuesday is likely to show that consumer prices, excluding fresh food, climbed 1.7% in February from a year earlier, according to economists polled by data provider Quick. That compares with January's 2.0% increase. The slowdown will likely allow the central bank more time to deliberate on its next tightening step, as uncertainty surrounding Middle East tensions continues to cloud the economic outlook.(megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)
0615 GMT - Eurozone inflation-linked government bonds have proved to be a "veritable bulwark" against the abrupt price slide that the outbreak of the Iran war triggered on the global bond markets, LBBW's Elmar Voelker says in a note. "In a monthly comparison, the geopolitically induced dip in sentiment left the linkers cold on balance," the senior fixed income analyst says. By contrast, the eurozone government bond market as a whole gave up most of the gains made in January and February, he says. "Since mid-February, the linkers have thus significantly expanded their slight year-to-date outperformance which they at the start of the year." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0615 GMT - Asia-Pacific's growth is expected to slow this year amid a mix of external threats, Moody's Analytics economists write in a commentary. The Middle East conflict has pushed up commodity prices and raised inflation risks. Most Asia-Pacific economies also rely heavily on energy imports, with Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, particularly dependent on imported fossil fuels. Additionally, the region faces tariff uncertainty and has been dependent on exports. "With access to the U.S. market becoming more difficult, the imbalance leaves the region exposed," the economists say. Moody's Analytics expects growth across the Asia-Pacific region to slow to 4% in 2026 from 4.3% in 2025. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0612 GMT - Morgan Stanley strategists advocate a neutral position on U.S. Treasurys until there is better clarity on how the Middle East conflict impacts the economy as well as the Federal Reserve's rate path, they say in a note. "We prefer to stay neutral on U.S. Treasurys until we better understand the implications of the Iran conflict, both on Fed policy and--as importantly-- fiscal policy," they say. Speculation on more fiscal stimulus might also help explain why Treasurys did not respond to risk-off sentiment as expected, they say. "Of course, not having a dovish Fed didn't help Treasuries hedge riskier assets either." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0601 GMT - The Australian dollar falls against its U.S. counterpart in the Asian afternoon session as traders focus on President Trump's 48-hour ultimatum issued Saturday to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. "The week ahead feels like it could be very consequential for global markets as the U.S.-Iran war potentially comes to a head," Westpac Strategy Group strategists say in commentary. Trump's ultimatum "risks aggravating the escalation cycle, and bringing substantially more damage to regional energy infrastructure," they say. Australian dollar "hasn't taken these events well and is starting the week on the back foot," they add. The Australian dollar falls 0.9% to $0.6962 after earlier touching $0.6958, the lowest intraday level since March 9, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0600 GMT - The yen is likely to settle around 157 per dollar in three months, as the Middle East situation is expected to stabilize during the spring, says NLI Research Institute senior economist Tsuyoshi Ueno. However, if the conflict drags on, leading to a sustained surge in oil prices, the yen would likely weaken further amid growing speculation of U.S. monetary tightening, Ueno says. "Since such moves [lower in the yen] are backed by economic fundamentals, the yen would likely test new lows even if the government decides to intervene," Ueno says.(megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)
0557 GMT - Newly appointed Bank of Korea chief Shin Hyun-song could raise interest rates earlier than markets expect--possibly in July, ING's Min Joo Kang says. "Though his views will come into closer view at the parliamentary confirmation hearing, Shin's past remarks, coupled with Korea's macroeconomic conditions, suggest he will take a relatively hawkish policy stance," the economist writes in a note. Shin, a senior Bank for International Settlements official, has stressed the need for preemptive and firm action to curb inflation, excessive lending and financial imbalances, Kang says. With a weaker won and higher oil prices set to fuel inflation, elevated household debt could prompt earlier-than-expected rate hikes by the new governor, she adds. (kwanwoo.jun@wsj.com)
0536 GMT - Asian currencies mostly weaken against dollar during the regional trading session, as high oil prices spurred by the Middle East conflict stoke fears of slower economic growth in the region. The Iran "crisis is already acutely affecting Asia economies," MUFG Bank's Michael Wan says in a report. If this drags on further, it will probably lead to energy shortages across the Asian region, the senior currency analyst says. The dollar rises 0.2% to 93.9240 rupees after earlier touching a record high of 93.9740 rupees, LSEG data show. The dollar is also 0.2% higher at 159.48 yen and up 0.2% at 1,508.20 won. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 23, 2026 02:16 ET (06:16 GMT)
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