Iran War Likely to Escalate Further Before Deal Could Come -- Market Talk

Dow Jones03-23

0654 GMT - U.S. President Trump seems to have started his war of choice without any half-realistic exit strategy and against the advice of his own military leaders, Berenberg's Holger Schmieding says in a note. In order to end the war in the near future, he will probably need a deal with the current Iranian regime, the chief economist says. "The deal could be implicit: we stop, but we will hit you hard again if you do not stop yourself in response," he says. "Or it could be explicit, for instance sanctions relief for Iran in return for an end to Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs." The balance of risks is tilting toward a further escalation first before a deal to end the war may become likely, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 23, 2026 02:54 ET (06:54 GMT)

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In order to end the war in the near future, he will probably need a deal with the current Iranian regime, the chief economist says. \"The deal could be implicit: we stop, but we will hit you hard again if you do not stop yourself in response,\" he says. \"Or it could be explicit, for instance sanctions relief for Iran in return for an end to Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs.\" The balance of risks is tilting toward a further escalation first before a deal to end the war may become likely, he says. 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In order to end the war in the near future, he will probably need a deal with the current Iranian regime, the chief economist says. \"The deal could be implicit: we stop, but we will hit you hard again if you do not stop yourself in response,\" he says. \"Or it could be explicit, for instance sanctions relief for Iran in return for an end to Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs.\" The balance of risks is tilting toward a further escalation first before a deal to end the war may become likely, he says. 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