0214 GMT - Australian market are down another 1.5% in early trading with the S&P/ASX 200 getting nearer to 10% correction territory. Given the seriousness of the events in the Middle East, it's perhaps surprising equity markets have not fallen harder in recent weeks, says David Bassanese, chief economist at Betashares. That's likely because investors have been hoping Trump would end hostilities at any given moment. So far, that's not been the case, and sadly there may come more market pain before a Trump TACO moment might arrive, he adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)
2336 GMT - JB Hi-Fi's bull at Bell Potter adjusts its earnings view as household budgets in Australia become increasingly stretched and freight costs rise. It also highlights the task of beating 8.2% sales growth recorded in 4Q25 when JB Hi-Fi benefited from demand for Nintendo Switch 2. "We anticipate AI laptop price increases to flow through the end of 3Q26 and other potential freight cost impacts from onshore suppliers to impact gross margins," analyst Chami Ratnapala says. "However, we see JB Hi-Fi better placed to absorb some margin pressures versus other names in our coverage." Bell Potter trims its net profit forecasts by 4% and 8% in FY 2027 and FY 2028, respectively. Its price target falls by 24% to A$90.00/share. JB Hi-Fi is down 0.2% at A$71.58. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
2334 GMT - Hub24 gets a new bull at Macquarie following the stock's recent material derating on concerns about AI disruption and broader conflict-related selling. One of the investment bank's analysts tells clients in a note that the Australian wealth platform should continue to take market share over the next one to two years. Raising their recommendation to outperform from neutral, they forecast annual earnings growth of more than 20% over the medium term. Worries about risks from AI-driven disruption are overblown, the note adds. Its target price is cut 13% to A$92.25. Shares are down 2.8% at A$77.05. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
2317 GMT - National Australia Bank loses its bull at Macquarie, which warns of the potential hit to business customers from oil-price linked inflation. Lowering their recommendation to neutral from outperform, Macquarie points out that customers in agriculture and transport are particularly exposed due to rising fuel and fertilizer costs. It flags manufacturing and construction as being vulnerable to higher energy costs and any global trade disruption, adding that disruption to fuel supply could deliver a broad hit. NAB is the Australian lender most exposed to higher-risk sectors, it says. Macquarie cuts its target price by 3.2% to A$45.50/share. Shares are down 2% at A$44.65 early. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
2242 GMT - Macquarie analysts move to an underweight position on Australian banks, citing earnings risks stemming from the Iran conflict. They see the inflationary impact of higher oil prices increasing the likelihood of interest-rate hikes, which would put further pressure on consumers and discretionary spending. This in turn could weigh on lenders' credit growth and contribute to higher rates of arrears, Macquarie says. "While the situation remains highly uncertain and fragile, we expect banks to take provision overlays in upcoming results, with impairment charges likely to rise vis-à-vis our current base case," Macquarie says. It downgrades fiscal 2026 bank earnings forecasts by 1-2%. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
2239 GMT - The impact of the conflict in Iran and disruption to energy supply is "primarily a timing and margin event, rather than a structural reset" for Australian industrial stocks, says Morgan Stanley. Earnings could come under pressure in the near term. Still, analyst Joseph Michael believes medium-term growth drivers are largely intact and investors will increasingly look through disruption in FY 2026. Its top picks are Orica, James Hardie, Qantas and Reece, assuming any disruption is short-lived. Prolonged disruption would like see most stocks trade lower. In that scenario, investors should rotate toward defensive stocks and companies with pricing power. "Qantas would drop in our order of preference in this scenario given higher fuel exposure and demand risk," MS says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
2238 GMT - Premier Investments's 1H result supports conviction at Macquarie that its Peter Alexander sleepwear chain is undervalued. Macquarie says Peter Alexander is trading at 3.3 times estimated Ebit, which represents a 71% discount to its apparel peers' average. That's despite industry-leading margins. Macquarie highlights 4.9% sales growth in Australia and New Zealand in 1H, and strong trading at the start of 2H. It also observes that U.K. sales are growing, while Premier Investments' pivot to outlets should reduce its U.K. cost base. Macquarie lifts its target price by 4.3% to A$16.90/share and keeps an outperform rating on the stock, which is at A$11.98 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
2229 GMT - Morgan Stanley expects Premier Investments to miss guidance for annual Ebit, given interest rates are rising again in Australia. Analyst Julia M. de Sterke forecasts Ebit of A$180 million in FY 2026. That compares to Premier's own projection of A$183 million. MS expects fuel and freight disruptions to put little dent in Premier's 2H performance. That's because the products it expects to sell in 2H have either been produced already or are in transit. Still, higher domestic freight costs could squeeze profit margins a tad. "On rates, we see risk that Peter Alexander sales momentum decelerates, despite the positive trading update," MS says. It expects Peter Alexander sales to rise by 4.5% in 2H, slowing slightly from 4.9% growth in 1H. MS has an overweight call on Premier. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
2207 GMT - Investors seeking to gain more exposure to the energy industry should consider buying stock in Duratec, says Shaw & Partners. Duratec is building a high-growth, high-margin energy services platform. It aims to capture structural demand across Australia's A$5 billion energy infrastructure maintenance, remediation, and decommissioning market, Shaw says. "The Energy segment is now one of Duratec's most profitable divisions, delivering FY25 revenue growth of 77% and sustaining 29% gross margins into 1H26," analyst Philip Pepe says. "Recent world events improve the outlook." Shaw has a A$2.40/share price target on Duratec, which ended last week at A$2.33. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
2121 GMT - Jefferies's price targets on Ampol and Viva Energy rise after Australia's government resets the Fuel Security Services Payment. Payment now starts at A$0.10 per liter, equivalent to around US$11.10 a barrel. That's higher than 6.4 Australian cents per liter, or US$7.22 per barrel, on offer before. Analyst Michael Simotas says the change is positive but probably won't be needed, given a very strong refining backdrop. "More important, it reinforces crucial importance of Australia's last two refineries to fuel security and positions Viva and Ampol well to negotiate favorable long-term solution," Jefferies says. It sees a path to something like a regulated return on refinery capital, which would be positive for valuations. Jefferies's price target for Ampol rises 14% to A$36.50/share, and lifts 16% to A$2.20/share for Viva. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
2103 GMT - President Trump's deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has placed a 48-hour ticking time bomb of elevated uncertainty over markets, says Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG Australia. If the ultimatum is not walked back then global equity markets are likely to extend last week's falls as oil prices spike higher again, he says. Iran's power grid is deeply intertwined with its energy sector. Striking major plants would trigger blackouts, crippling everything from pumps and refineries to export terminals and military command centers. This would render the blockade economically and politically unbearable for Tehran, Sycamore says. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 23, 2026 00:01 ET (04:01 GMT)
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