The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1949 ET - Japanese stocks may fall as concerns about higher energy prices and a shortage of petrochemical products persist amid the Middle East conflict. Nikkei futures open at 50990 on the SGX, down 1995 points from Friday and down 1965 points from Thursday. Japanese markets were closed Friday for a national holiday. The dollar is at 159.20 yen, compared with Y159.71 as of Thursday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are focusing on developments in Iran and crude oil prices. The Nikkei Stock Average fell 3.4% to 53372.53 on Thursday. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com)
1938 ET - Rising fiscal shocks linked to the fallout in market of the war in Iran could be amplified because sovereign debt is increasingly held by hedge funds, says BBH in a note to clients. Unlike banks or private investors such pension funds, insurance companies, and asset managers, hedge funds are leveraged and highly liquidity driven, it adds. They rely on short-term secured borrowing from bank dealers to finance their investments. In periods of stress, funding can dry up, making fiscal shocks translate into faster, larger, and more correlated market moves, BBH warns. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
1725 ET - Bonds have generally followed movements in oil prices over the past week, but the pair are starting to decouple, says ANZ Bank. Fixed income markets have sold off sharply, it says. While the sell-off was originally concentrated at the front end, long-end yields are now following suit, ANZ says. The yield on the UK 10-year gilt rose to its highest level since 2008. The change comes amid a clear shift in investor expectations regarding the impacts and duration of the conflict in Iran, ANZ says.(james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
1703 ET - President Trump's deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has placed a 48-hour ticking time bomb of elevated uncertainty over markets, says Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG Australia. If the ultimatum is not walked back then global equity markets are likely to extend last week's falls as oil prices spike higher again, he says. Iran's power grid is deeply intertwined with its energy sector. Striking major plants would trigger blackouts, crippling everything from pumps and refineries to export terminals and military command centers. This would render the blockade economically and politically unbearable for Tehran, Sycamore says. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
1651 ET - The Australian dollar is supported by the Reserve Bank of Australia's hawkish policy narrative, but that support could vanish if hopes of a near-term end to the Iran conflict fade, says Sean Callow, senior FX analyst at InTouch Capital Markets. Real money accounts have reached their most bullish Australian dollar positions on record, he says. Real money accounts and hedge funds combined are net long A$8.7 billion, Callow notes. It places the Australian dollar at risk of significant profit-taking if markets stop hoping for a quick resolution to the conflict and focus on the economic damage of the massive energy supply disruption, he says. ( james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
1650 ET - The ongoing rise in developed market bond yields is probably overdone, exacerbated by "positioning washouts," says Pepperstone senior research strategist Michael Brown. Still, talk of government support schemes to cushion the impact of higher energy prices will add to concerns about mounting pressure on government budgets worldwide, he says. It is safe to assume those economies which were in the worst fiscal shape pre-crisis will be underperformers here, Brown says. That leaves gilts, in particular, exposed to further downside if government spending taps are turned back on, he says. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
1648 ET - Global markets are bracing for a risk-averse start to the week, says Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone. Traders have what appears to be a massive risk event when President Trump's 48-hour deadline to re-open the Strait of Hormuz is set to expire, he says. That's going to keep participants on edge, underpinning demand for havens like the U.S. dollar, Brown says. The risk that Iran then retaliates is also on the minds of traders, he says. It's impossible to price a concrete path on how all this evolves, so capital preservation is likely to be the priority, Brown says. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
1549 ET - A key risk facing financial markets is that the energy shock stemming from the conflict in Iran morphs into a fiscal shock as higher borrowing costs collide with already stretched public finances, says BBH in a note to clients. Longer term sovereign bond yields have pushed higher since the start of the Iran conflict driven by a toxic mix of rising inflation expectations, an upward repricing in central bank rate path, and growing fiscal concerns, it says. Upward pressure on government bond yields will add to existing fiscal strains as rising debt is compounded by higher interest expense, it adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 22, 2026 19:49 ET (23:49 GMT)
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