The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
2037 ET - Asian currencies consolidate against the dollar in early trade, but could be weighed down by the ongoing Middle East conflict. "We expect military escalation and higher oil prices," CBA's Global Economic & Markets Research team says in a research report. "The USD benefits from its safe haven status and the U.S.' energy independence," the team says. The "USD will largely be a function of news about the Iran war in the absence of important U.S. economic data this week," the team adds. The U.S. dollar is flat at 159.25 yen but is 0.1% higher at 1,506.05 won, while the Australian dollar is 0.1% higher at $0.7007, FactSet data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
2034 ET - South Korea's central bank chief nominee, Shin Hyun-song, is seen to favor early and decisive tightening when inflation risks rise, Citigroup's Jin-Wook Kim says. Shin argued during the 2022 post-pandemic tightening cycle that front-loaded rate increases are preferable when inflation risks rise, as delays can allow inflation to become entrenched and make stabilization more costly later, the economist writes in a note. The senior Bank for International Settlements official has been named to replace departing Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong, whose four-year term ends on April 20. Citi expects signs of a rate hike at the May 28 policy meeting, when Shin is set to preside. (kwanwoo.jun@wsj.com)
2031 ET - The yen is likely to trade in a 158.50-160.50 range versus the U.S. dollar on Monday, with Mideast concerns continuing to put upward pressure on the dollar, says Sony Financial Group analyst Juntaro Morimoto. "Speculative Chicago IMM positions are already net-short the yen, suggesting that any dollar-yen upside driven by the unwinding of yen-long positions will likely be more muted than in the past," he says. Watchfulness against the Japanese government's likely currency intervention will also remain high around the 160 threshold, he adds. The yen was recently trading at 159.16 to the dollar.(megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)
2018 ET - JGBs fall in early Tokyo trade, tracking recent price declines in global government bonds stemming from the Middle East conflict. Expectations for higher crude oil prices that lead to inflation concerns as well as falling U.S. and European government bond prices will probably be perceived as selling factors, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities' fixed income strategists say in commentary. The five-year JGB yield rises 5 bps to 1.720%; the 10-year JGB yield is 6 bps higher at 2.320%, the highest intraday level since late January, according to data provider Quick. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
2015 ET - Japanese stocks are broadly lower as concerns about higher energy prices and a shortage of petrochemical products persist amid the Middle East conflict. Chip and metals stocks are leading declines. Renesas Electronics is down 8.3% and Mitsui Kinzoku is 7.7% lower. The dollar is at 159.07 yen, compared with Y159.23 late Friday in New York. Investors are focusing on developments in Iran and crude oil prices. The Nikkei Stock Average is down 3.8% at 51341.67. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)
1949 ET - Japanese stocks may fall as concerns about higher energy prices and a shortage of petrochemical products persist amid the Middle East conflict. Nikkei futures open at 50990 on the SGX, down 1995 points from Friday and down 1965 points from Thursday. Japanese markets were closed Friday for a national holiday. The dollar is at 159.20 yen, compared with Y159.71 as of Thursday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are focusing on developments in Iran and crude oil prices. The Nikkei Stock Average fell 3.4% to 53372.53 on Thursday. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com)
1938 ET - Rising fiscal shocks linked to the fallout in market of the war in Iran could be amplified because sovereign debt is increasingly held by hedge funds, says BBH in a note to clients. Unlike banks or private investors such pension funds, insurance companies, and asset managers, hedge funds are leveraged and highly liquidity driven, it adds. They rely on short-term secured borrowing from bank dealers to finance their investments. In periods of stress, funding can dry up, making fiscal shocks translate into faster, larger, and more correlated market moves, BBH warns. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
1725 ET - Bonds have generally followed movements in oil prices over the past week, but the pair are starting to decouple, says ANZ Bank. Fixed income markets have sold off sharply, it says. While the sell-off was originally concentrated at the front end, long-end yields are now following suit, ANZ says. The yield on the UK 10-year gilt rose to its highest level since 2008. The change comes amid a clear shift in investor expectations regarding the impacts and duration of the conflict in Iran, ANZ says.(james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
1703 ET - President Trump's deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has placed a 48-hour ticking time bomb of elevated uncertainty over markets, says Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG Australia. If the ultimatum is not walked back then global equity markets are likely to extend last week's falls as oil prices spike higher again, he says. Iran's power grid is deeply intertwined with its energy sector. Striking major plants would trigger blackouts, crippling everything from pumps and refineries to export terminals and military command centers. This would render the blockade economically and politically unbearable for Tehran, Sycamore says. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
1651 ET - The Australian dollar is supported by the Reserve Bank of Australia's hawkish policy narrative, but that support could vanish if hopes of a near-term end to the Iran conflict fade, says Sean Callow, senior FX analyst at InTouch Capital Markets. Real money accounts have reached their most bullish Australian dollar positions on record, he says. Real money accounts and hedge funds combined are net long A$8.7 billion, Callow notes. It places the Australian dollar at risk of significant profit-taking if markets stop hoping for a quick resolution to the conflict and focus on the economic damage of the massive energy supply disruption, he says. ( james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
1650 ET - The ongoing rise in developed market bond yields is probably overdone, exacerbated by "positioning washouts," says Pepperstone senior research strategist Michael Brown. Still, talk of government support schemes to cushion the impact of higher energy prices will add to concerns about mounting pressure on government budgets worldwide, he says. It is safe to assume those economies which were in the worst fiscal shape pre-crisis will be underperformers here, Brown says. That leaves gilts, in particular, exposed to further downside if government spending taps are turned back on, he says. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
1648 ET - Global markets are bracing for a risk-averse start to the week, says Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone. Traders have what appears to be a massive risk event when President Trump's 48-hour deadline to re-open the Strait of Hormuz is set to expire, he says. That's going to keep participants on edge, underpinning demand for havens like the U.S. dollar, Brown says. The risk that Iran then retaliates is also on the minds of traders, he says. It's impossible to price a concrete path on how all this evolves, so capital preservation is likely to be the priority, Brown says. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 22, 2026 20:37 ET (00:37 GMT)
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