Market Talks covering the impact of U.S. Politics and White House policies on companies and markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0726 ET - European stocks do a 180 after President Trump heralded successful talks with Iran "regarding a complete and total resolution to our hostilities" regarding the Middle East conflict. Blue-chip indexes had fallen into correction territory in early trade as oil prices climbed further. But after Trump's Truth Social post, indexes surged into the green. The Europe-wide Stoxx 600 index pivoted to a 1.5% gain, while the industrial-heavy German DAX surges 2.5% higher after falling over 2% earlier in the session. France's CAC 40 jumps 2.6%. In London, the FTSE 100 gains 0.5%, though losses for oil majors that had been supported by higher energy prices weigh on the index. Spain's IBEX 35 is 1.9% higher, while the Italian FTSE MIB jumps 2.1%. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)
0431 ET - European natural-gas prices rise as the war in the Middle East enters its fourth week, with the U.S. and Iran exchanging fresh threats over the Strait of Hormuz and energy infrastructure. In early trading, the benchmark Dutch TTF front-month contract rises 3.9% to 61.58 euros a megawatt-hour. Prices have surged more than 90% so far this month, driven by halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and severe damage to the world's largest liquefied-natural-gas export facility in Qatar. The disruptions come at a sensitive time for Europe, where EU storage levels remain below 29%, raising the prospect of stiffer competition for LNG cargoes with Asian buyers. "Asian LNG buyers were closely monitoring the situation, with many reluctant to step up purchases in the spot market due to the higher prices," ANZ analysts write. "But the longevity of the disruptions could make that difficult." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0424 ET - London's miners slide in opening trade as inflation fears cause metal prices to tumble. President Trump has threatened to "obliterate" Iranian power infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz doesn't fully reopen. Iranian reprisals could further disrupt oil flows, pushing fuel prices higher and triggering inflation. This might result in interest-rate hikes. Higher interest rates can damp metal demand and weaken the appeal of nonyielding assets, like gold. New York gold futures drop 7.8% to $4,216.90 a troy ounce, while silver falls 7.7% to $64.29 an ounce. LME copper futures fall 0.8%, while aluminum is down 0.3%. Precious metal miner Hochschild Mining loses 5.15%, while peers Fresnillo and Endeavour Mining are down just under 4%. Copper miner Antofagasta drops 3.3%. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0415 ET - Bitcoin stays weak after hitting a two-week low overnight as the widening Middle East conflict dampens risk appetite. President Trump at the weekend threatened to attack Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz isn't opened within 48 hours and Iran warned it would retaliate. "The escalation puts investors in a difficult spot," Danske Bank analysts say in a note. The energy price shock could become permanent if oil infrastructure is hit, they say. However, if the U.S. can take control of the Strait, it would be positive for risk sentiment, they say. Bitcoin rises 0.3% to $68,350 after hitting a low of $67,383, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0354 ET - Oil prices rise as the U.S. and Iran threaten to widen their targets and escalate the war, with President Trump giving Tehran a deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rises 1.5% to $113.88 a barrel, while WTI is up 3.5% to $98.06 a barrel. Trump said Iran must "fully open" the waterway by Monday evening Washington time, or its power plants will be hit. Meanwhile, Tehran said it would attack key infrastructure across the Middle East if Trump followed through. "With production and exports heavily constrained, investors are sensitive to any threats to supply that could drag on the post-conflict recovery," analysts at BMI say. Brent could reach the $110-$130 a barrel range over the next one-to-two weeks if the conflict drags on, they add. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0335 ET - Gold prices fall to their weakest level this year as the Middle East conflict escalates, raising concerns over inflation and prospects of higher interest rates. In early European trading, New York futures drop 9.5% to $4,132.90 a troy ounce, extending last week's losses. "Prices recorded their biggest weekly loss since 1983 on concerns higher inflation will see the Fed hike rates," analysts at ANZ say. Surging energy prices--with Brent crude above $100 a barrel--have raised expectations for higher interest rates, dampening the outlook for non-yielding assets. Meanwhile, other precious metals follow suit, with silver futures falling 11.5% to $61.66 an ounce and platinum down 11.4% to $1,745.40 an ounce. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0258 ET - If the Iran-Iraq war is any guide about Iran's thinking, then Iran's tolerance for pain is way higher than many analysts think, Jefferies' Mohit Kumar says in a note. Also, negotiations and an end of war may be much trickier than U.S. President Trump might be thinking, the global economist says. As the war might be longer than investors were hoping for, "we could see further risky asset repricing and increased focus on stagflation/recession risk than is currently the case," Kumar says. Positioning is not yet clean in a number of assets as investors were hoping for a quick end to the war, so some more position squaring may be due, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0254 ET - U.S. President Trump seems to have started his war of choice without any half-realistic exit strategy and against the advice of his own military leaders, Berenberg's Holger Schmieding says in a note. In order to end the war in the near future, he will probably need a deal with the current Iranian regime, the chief economist says. "The deal could be implicit: we stop, but we will hit you hard again if you do not stop yourself in response," he says. "Or it could be explicit, for instance sanctions relief for Iran in return for an end to Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs." The balance of risks is tilting toward a further escalation first before a deal to end the war may become likely, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0201 ET - The Australian dollar falls against its U.S. counterpart in the Asian afternoon session as traders focus on President Trump's 48-hour ultimatum issued Saturday to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. "The week ahead feels like it could be very consequential for global markets as the U.S.-Iran war potentially comes to a head," Westpac Strategy Group strategists say in commentary. Trump's ultimatum "risks aggravating the escalation cycle, and bringing substantially more damage to regional energy infrastructure," they say. Australian dollar "hasn't taken these events well and is starting the week on the back foot," they add. The Australian dollar falls 0.9% to $0.6962 after earlier touching $0.6958, the lowest intraday level since March 9, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
1941 ET - Oil futures edge lower as traders eye President Trump's deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump on Saturday threatened to "hit and obliterate" Iran's power plants if the country doesn't reopen the Strait in the next two days. "Reluctant diplomacy and the potential for ground troops could exacerbate the situation," Barclays Commodities Research's Amarpreet Singh says in a research report. "Attacks on energy infrastructure highlight the risk of compounding effects of sustained damage to the region's supply outlook on energy prices," the analyst adds. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are down 0.3% at $97.97 per barrel; front-month Brent crude oil futures are 0.4% lower at $111.78 a barrel. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
1703 ET - President Trump's deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has placed a 48-hour ticking time bomb of elevated uncertainty over markets, says Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG Australia. If the ultimatum is not walked back then global equity markets are likely to extend last week's falls as oil prices spike higher again, he says. Iran's power grid is deeply intertwined with its energy sector. Striking major plants would trigger blackouts, crippling everything from pumps and refineries to export terminals and military command centers. This would render the blockade economically and politically unbearable for Tehran, Sycamore says. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
1648 ET - Global markets are bracing for a risk-averse start to the week, says Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone. Traders have what appears to be a massive risk event when President Trump's 48-hour deadline to re-open the Strait of Hormuz is set to expire, he says. That's going to keep participants on edge, underpinning demand for havens like the U.S. dollar, Brown says. The risk that Iran then retaliates is also on the minds of traders, he says. It's impossible to price a concrete path on how all this evolves, so capital preservation is likely to be the priority, Brown says. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 23, 2026 07:26 ET (11:26 GMT)
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