MW Flights will keep getting more expensive and harder to find. Here's how much worse it could get.
By Genna Contino and Charles Passy
Summer airfare has already jumped 19% as uncertainty around oil prices persists
Airfares are up at a time when travelers are enduring TSA staffing shortages and airports are crowded with spring breakers.
Travelers are struggling to score deals on airfares during an already chaotic travel season as airlines cut flight routes and raise prices to combat rising jet-fuel costs.
Domestic airfares are up 10% to 15% for flights after spring break and before peak summer travel, and summer trips are already about 19% more expensive compared to last year, according to the travel site Going. That means a $400 summer flight last year could cost $476 to book today. The increases are hitting hardest on the low end, suggesting fewer deals are available for budget-conscious travelers.
High oil prices (CL00) (BRN00) are contributing to these increases, but airlines are also likely testing how high they can push fares "at a time when headlines are likely causing panic buying as well," said Going travel expert Katy Nastro. Going's figures are based on available booking data rather than airlines' internal numbers, so prices could shift as the situation evolves.
If oil prices continue to rise, travelers are likely to see the cost of airfare continue to increase, said Michael Taylor, a senior managing director with J.D. Power who tracks the travel industry - though airlines will be mindful of how far they can push the limit.
"They have to look at the marketplace. They can't take a ticket from $900 to $1,800 - no one will buy that," Taylor told MarketWatch.
'Oh my gosh, enough already':' How to protect your trip - and your wallet - during the most chaotic spring-break travel season in years.
And if oil prices fall, airlines will likely lower fares, though Taylor says a decline would not be as immediate. "They'll want to see how long they can get away" with higher prices, he added.
Delta Air Lines $(DAL)$ Chief Commercial Officer Joe Esposito said the company moved fast in responding to increased fuel prices, saying at a conference last week that "the speed in which you've seen [higher fares] in just the past two to three weeks has, I think, put a lot of credibility that the industry wants to make money."
Delta added fuel surcharges to international routes and raised base fares for domestic flights in the past couple of weeks, Esposito said. The carrier has seen heightened demand as well, recording five of its highest sales days in history since the conflict with Iran began.
United Airlines $(UAL)$ took the approach of canceling some routes, a standard business practice that Taylor says has long been baked into airlines' bottom-line strategy when confronting financial challenges. United's plans assume oil prices won't return to preconflict levels until the end of 2027, prompting the airline to cancel 5% of its planned flights through the third quarter of this year.
Read more: March 27 looks like a make-or-break day for American travelers and the partial government shutdown
The majority of canceled United flights were during off-peak times - red-eyes and flights on Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Saturdays - a move Nastro said could "make finding 'deals' slightly harder in the future." The carrier also canceled service to Tel Aviv and Dubai, but plans to restore its full schedule this fall.
The fare hikes and route cuts come as airports are already seeing hours-long security lines amid a partial government shutdown that has left Transportation Security Administration agents working without pay. Nearly 12% TSA agents had called out of work as of Sunday, and more than 400 have quit. Hundreds of Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers have since been deployed to airports to "help bolster TSA efforts," a Department of Homeland Security spokesperson told MarketWatch, though they did not specify how ICE agents would be helping.
People who opt to drive instead of fly will still be paying more than they would have before the Iran conflict: Gas hit an average of $3.95 per gallon on Monday, according to AAA, up from $2.93 a month ago.
Join Don't Short Yourself Live to ask MarketWatch's Beth Pinsker your Roth IRA questions on Wednesday, March 25, at 1:30 p.m. Eastern time.
-Genna Contino -Charles Passy
This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 23, 2026 17:38 ET (21:38 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Comments