The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
2123 ET - Asian currencies could face renewed volatility as optimism over U.S.-Iran talks looks premature, with negotiations likely to remain difficult, MUFG Bank's Michael Wan says. "We are ultimately cautious in reading too much into what the U.S. side is claiming at this point in time," Wan says. "The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the greater the chance of fuel shortages showing up across Asia," he adds. Wan notes domestic fuel prices are now much higher in Asia, pointing to diesel and gasoline pump prices in the Philippines jumping by 60%-90% this month. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
2113 ET - The Bank of Japan's policy board is increasingly concerned about the effects of a weak yen on the nation's economy, according to minutes from the bank's January meeting. Many members believe Japanese companies have passed on higher import costs caused by the yen's depreciation to consumers in recent years. One member noted that even low-priced imported goods have become less likely to curb inflation due to the weaker currency. "It had become more likely that exchange rate factors would push up prices, against the background of the rising dependence on imports that had been observed in domestic demand," the member said. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)
2037 ET - Asian currencies consolidate against the dollar in early trade. The "markets will likely remain cautious as investors juggle Middle East geopolitical risks and volatile oil prices, which continue to drive inflation expectations," UOB's Global Economics & Markets Research team says in a note. Participants will probably "focus on the developments in the Middle East especially the interaction between the U.S. and Iran and the prospects of reopening of Strait of Hormuz," the team adds. The dollar is little changed at 158.75 yen and is 0.2% lower at 1,493.14 won, while the Australian dollar is flat at $0.6996, FactSet data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
2021 ET - JGB futures rise in early Tokyo trade. Expectations of a cease-fire between the U.S.-Israel side and the Iran side and the resulting decline in oil prices are likely to provide support to the JGB market, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities' fixed income strategists say in commentary. On the other hand, however, it remains unclear whether negotiations between the U.S. and Iran will progress, the strategists add. Benchmark 10-year JGB futures are 0.28 yen higher at Y131.29. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
2020 ET - Japanese stocks are broadly higher due to continued hopes for possible negotiations between the U.S. and Iran to end the war. Metals and chip-related stocks are leading gains. Mitsui Kinzoku is up 7.9% and Tokyo Electron Ltd. is 4.3% higher. The dollar is at 158.70 yen, compared with Y158.67 as of Tuesday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are closely watching developments in the Middle East as well as any Japanese government responses to the shortage of energy and petrochemical products. The Nikkei Stock Average is up 3.0% at 53811.99. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)
1948 ET - Japanese stocks may rise thanks to continued hopes for U.S.-Iran talks to end the war. Nikkei futures are up 1.6% at 53220 on the SGX. The dollar is at 158.69 yen, little changed from Y158.67 as of Tuesday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are focusing on developments in Iran as well as any Japanese government responses to a shortage of energy and petrochemical products. The Nikkei Stock Average rose 1.4% to 52252.28 on Tuesday.(kosaku.narioka@wsj.com)
1627 ET - The world will require an estimated $106 trillion in investments to meet its infrastructure needs in the next 14 years, according to McKinsey & Co. Capital is needed not only for "traditional assets such as roads, ports, bridges and power grids but also for the next generation of those assets, [as well as] data centers, charging stations, fiber-optic networks, and more," the consulting firm says. Private-market fund managers are stepping up, having raised a record of nearly $200 billion for infrastructure-focused strategies last year, as infrastructure is the asset class to which investors most want to increase allocations, McKinsey says. Such strategies, however, face hurdles such as longer holding periods, higher debt costs and rising asset prices, it adds. "The ability to drive value creation will become increasingly foundational." (luis.garcia@wsj.com; @lhvgarcia)
1609 ET - Labor-market performance is the central force influencing Canada's mortgage-arrears rate, Bank of Canada research suggests. A new paper from BOC estimates that a 1.0-percentage-point rise in the unemployment rate leads to an increase of 0.10 ppts in the mortgage-arrears rate after one year. In Canada, a mortgage is considered in arrears when payments are overdue by 90 days. The paper notes that mortgage debt accounts for over 70% of all household liabilities. The latest mortgage-arrears data, via the Canadian Bankers Association, suggest 0.26% of Canadian mortgages are in arrears as of the end of 2025, up from a low of 0.14% in the fall of 2022. In that timeframe, Canada's unemployment rate rose to 6.8% from 5.1%. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
1546 ET - Treasury yields jump following a disappointing two-year auction as markets navigate the uncertainties of war in the Middle East. Oil prices rise around 4% and the dollar strengthens as Tehran denies direct talks with the U.S., contradicting President Trump. A two-year Treasury auction has a bid-to-cover ratio of just 2.44, below the prior six-month average of 2.62 and the lowest since May 2024, indicating weak demand. The two-year yield settles at 3.926%, up 0.096 percentage point and the highest since July. The 10-year rises 0.056 p.p. to 4.390%. The WSJ Dollar Index is up 0.3%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1525 ET - Oxford Economics estimates that it's going to take Canadian oil producers about 100 days to meet Canada's pledge to deliver an extra 23.6 million barrels of crude oil to the marketplace to offset the war-fueled supply crunch. Canada's contribution is part of the International Energy Agency's promise to make 400 million barrels of oil available from emergency reserves. Canada doesn't have emergency oil reserves, so this requires increased output from domestic producers. Oxford says Canada's limited pipeline capacity allows for the transport of up to 500,000 barrels of day of crude. Oxford says increased production of 140,000 b/d in 2Q, alongside companies drawing down on their own crude inventories by the equivalent of 100,000 b/d, should allow Canada to meet its IEA target, offering a modest bump up in growth. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
1440 ET - The war in Iran will hobble but not derail the Canadian economy, says Oxford Economics' head of Canada research, Tony Stillo. Stillo forecasts that headline inflation to jump from its sub-2% level to around 3.5% in 2Q, fueled by higher oil prices. Stillo, however, says the increase in core prices -- which strips out food and energy -- will likely be limited because of excess capacity sloshing around in the economy. "We expect the Bank of Canada to look through the energy price shock, provided it remains temporary," Stillo says. Oxford also doesn't expect much of hit to consumer spending, as it anticipates households to dip into savings. Lower-income households are also set to receive a federal rebate to help cope with higher food prices. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
1427 ET - The above-consensus rise in Mexican inflation in mid-March, due in large part to a jump in tomato prices, is likely to keep the Bank of Mexico on hold this week, analysts and Grupo Financiero Banorte say in a note. CPI rose 0.62% in the first half of the month, pushing the annual inflation rate up to 4.63% from 4.13% in the second half of February. Annual core inflation was steady at 4.46%. "We believe this result, combined with a complex outlook for inflation due to the conflict in the Middle East and other factors, will lead Banxico to extend the pause in its rate-cutting cycle," leaving its benchmark rate at 7%, they say. The central bank's rate decision is scheduled for Thursday. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 24, 2026 21:23 ET (01:23 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Comments