The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0932 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are lower partly in reaction to moves in the oil market. "Nymex natural gas continues to be influenced by Iran headlines despite lacking a short-term fundamental connection, and suggests bearish medium-term risk as fundamentals and prices eventually recouple," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. "While our short-term bias remains lower, volatility risks are elevated into the weekend." Nymex gas for April delivery is off 1.7% at $2.893/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0918 ET - Oil futures are lower on U.S. efforts to negotiate an end to the conflict with Iran, although the sides are seen far apart in their demands. "If it was hard holding positions last week, this week is proving ridiculous," Neil Crosby of Sparta Commodities says in a note. Monday's price plunge on President Trump's postponement of threatened attacks on Iranian power plants was followed by a rebound yesterday as Israel and Iran continued to exchange strikes. "It is very hard to know whether what any side says publicly has anything to do with their real position or intentions," Crosby says. WTI is off 4.8% at $87.94 a barrel Brent is down 4.9% at $99.39. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0918 ET - A sustained dollar selloff looks unlikely as there's little chance of the Iran war ending soon, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. The dollar falls as energy prices and safe-haven demand decline after news the U.S. sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war and mediators are pushing for a meeting between the two sides by Thursday. "It seems dangerous to position for an early resolution of the crisis, with the Iranians likely to want to take high energy prices as leverage in any negotiations." It's too early to expect a major dollar decline, Turner says. The DXY falls 0.1% to 99.353 and ING expects it trade in a range of 99.00-100.000 this week. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0910 ET - Sterling and the euro might struggle to sustain any gains if the Bank of England and European Central Bank raise interest rates more aggressively than markets expect, MUFG Bank's Lee Hardman says in a note. While faster rate rises could offer some near-term support for sterling and the euro, those gains would "ultimately prove short-lived if tighter monetary policy alongside higher energy prices trigger a deeper economic slowdown/recession for European economies." The softer growth momentum indicated by Tuesday's U.K. and eurozone purchasing managers' surveys could dampen expectations for more aggressive rate rises. However, the BOE and ECB are still likely to raise rates if the inflation shock proves more prolonged, he says. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0904 ET - Rystad Energy estimates the cost to restore damaged energy infrastructure in the Middle East at $25 billion so far, and says it will likely rise further. But repairs will take more than just money, the firm's head of supply chain research Audun Martinsen says in a note. "The Gulf region's recovery will be defined less by financial capital and more by structural constraints," he says. Production backlogs at the few global suppliers of the gas turbines needed to repair Qatar's LNG plant at Ras Laffan, for example, means a full recovery could take up to five years. "While some assets may be restored within months, others could remain offline for years." (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0850 ET - The front end of the Canadian yield looks "cheap to us, on both an outright basis and tactically versus the US," says Andrew Kelvin, head of Canadian and global rates strategy at TD Securities. Traders are now pricing in nearly three quarter-point rate increases from the Bank of Canada before year's end, in anticipation of higher energy prices lifting inflation. Kelvin says the selloff in short-term government of Canada bonds doesn't reflect underlying domestic conditions that include a weak labor market, excess spare capacity, and a sharp slowdown in core inflation. Core CPI strips out volatile items like food and energy. Kelvin says there is a possibility that BOC might have to raise rates, "but we'd emphasize the near-term risks probably skew toward easing." (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
0817 ET - The decline in Germany's Ifo index shows the Middle East war has blasted away resurgent optimism among businesses, ING's Carsten Brzeski says in a note. "Coming from the highest level since last summer, Germany's most prominent leading indicator took a severe hit as the war in the Middle East, soaring energy prices, and new uncertainty dented previous optimism." The index declined to 86.4 in March, from 88.4. However, the conflict has changed a lot but not everything. The situation isn't yet comparable to 2022, when energy prices and fiscal stimulus during the pandemic fueled an inflation wave and then a wage-price spiral, Brzeski says. The drivers of Germany's rebound, especially fiscal stimulus for defense and infrastructure, are still present, he says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
0807 ET - Bitcoin rises to a one-week high on cautious optimism for a resolution to the Middle East conflict. The U.S. sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war, The Wall Street Journal reports. The plan centers around President Trump's previous demands of Iran, including dismantling main nuclear sites and fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Mediators are pushing for a U.S.-Iran meeting by Thursday. However, Iran has indicated a high bar to re-enter cease-fire negotiations. "Crypto markets are trading more in line with broader risk sentiment again, stabilizing after earlier weakness tied to the oil-driven risk-off move," Saxo Bank analysts say in a note. Bitcoin rises 2.6% to a high of $72,0003, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0758 ET - Recent Canadian economic data points to a weaker start to 2026, with broad labor market weakness in January and February and very weak trade numbers in January, signally slower aggregate demand, Scotiabank says. Its economists now expect GDP growth for 1Q will undershoot earlier expectations, which is likely to mean average growth of 1.3% for 2026. Still, Scotiabank reckons there are several forces that should support a recovery later in the year and into 2027, including fading tensions, past rate cuts feeding through, and government spending. As a result, it expects growth to accelerate to 2% in 2027. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
0740 ET - Although nearterm growth in Canada has softened, it's likely to be a temporary slowdown and so not something the Bank of Canada will react to, Scotiabank reckons. It also doesn't expect the central bank will react to the direct impact of higher oil prices on inflation, even if the shift in the balance of inflation risk does argue for caution. As a result, Scotiabank analysis assumes the Bank of Canada will begin gradually removing monetary stimulus and move toward a more neutral stance by year end. That suggests it will leave interest rates on hold near-term, until the USMCA renegotiations are resolved, before lifting rates three times in the second half of this year. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
0631 ET - Liquidity at the front end of the U.S. Treasury yield curve has deteriorated amid elevated volatility since the onset of the Middle East conflict, Morgan Stanley strategists say in a note. This has led to wider bid-ask spreads and high volumes signaling forced flows, they say. "Elevated volumes alongside wider spreads suggest flows are driven by necessity rather than desire." Two-year bid-ask spreads have widened around 27% versus February, they say. "Large intraday yield swings are increasingly coinciding with thin liquidity conditions in the front end." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0627 ET - Oil prices extend losses, plunging more than 5% as diplomatic efforts to end the Iran war overshadowed continued military strikes and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In mid-morning European trading, Brent crude is down 5.4% to $94.82 a barrel, while WTI falls 5% to $85.23 a barrel. Still, "the conflict has triggered widespread energy stress, including surging diesel prices, fuel shortages in multiple countries, and increased demand for alternative supplies, while uncertainty over negotiations and ongoing attacks continues to keep markets highly volatile," says Soojin Kim, analyst at MUFG. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 25, 2026 09:32 ET (13:32 GMT)
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