Short-Term Canada Bonds Look Cheap -- Market Talk

Dow Jones03-25 20:50

0850 ET - The front end of the Canadian yield looks "cheap to us, on both an outright basis and tactically versus the US," says Andrew Kelvin, head of Canadian and global rates strategy at TD Securities. Traders are now pricing in nearly three quarter-point rate increases from the Bank of Canada before year's end, in anticipation of higher energy prices lifting inflation. Kelvin says the selloff in short-term government of Canada bonds doesn't reflect underlying domestic conditions that include a weak labor market, excess spare capacity, and a sharp slowdown in core inflation. Core CPI strips out volatile items like food and energy. Kelvin says there is a possibility that BOC might have to raise rates, "but we'd emphasize the near-term risks probably skew toward easing." (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 25, 2026 08:50 ET (12:50 GMT)

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Traders are now pricing in nearly three quarter-point rate increases from the Bank of Canada before year's end, in anticipation of higher energy prices lifting inflation. Kelvin says the selloff in short-term government of Canada bonds doesn't reflect underlying domestic conditions that include a weak labor market, excess spare capacity, and a sharp slowdown in core inflation. Core CPI strips out volatile items like food and energy. 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