Market Talks covering the impact of U.S. Politics and White House policies on companies and markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0343 ET - Oil prices fall, with Brent crude back below $100 a barrel after the U.S. sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war and news that mediators are pushing for a meeting between Washington and Tehran later this week. In early trading, the international oil benchmark is down 4.5% to $95.72 a barrel, while the U.S. oil gauge WTI falls 3.9% to $86.28 a barrel. "Wars rarely need to end before markets bottom," says Saxo Bank's Charu Chanana. "Investors tend to move as soon as the probability of further escalation starts to fall." Still, strikes by both sides persist, and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, with Iran saying only "non-hostile" vessels may transit the waterway. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0343 ET - Nordic markets are seen opening slightly higher, with IG calling the OMXS30 up 0.7% at around 2908. The U.S. has reportedly handed over a 15-point plan to Iran, with various demands in exchange for the end of sanctions. The market has reacted with relief, with Brent crude falling to just below $100 a barrel and Asian stock markets higher, SEB's Elisabet Kopelman writes. Stock-market futures are pointing higher in Europe and the U.S. After the Danish election, the Social Democrats remain the largest party, but the left bloc failed to reach a majority. The Moderates will decide whether the Social Democrats' Mette Frederiksen will remain prime minister. OMXS30 closed at 2908.35, OMXN40 at 2401.15 and OBX at 1910.14. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)
0257 ET - Such is the "varied and volatile nature" of U.S. President Trump's rhetoric that it would be wrong for investors to buy into his every statement, First Abu Dhabi Bank's Simon Ballard says in a note. "We expect a veil of caution to persist across financial markets in the near term," the chief economist says. That said, on the back of cease-fire speculation, financial markets are trading with a more positive tone this morning, even though the focus remains firmly fixed on the Strait of Hormuz, which is still effectively closed to shipping, he says. Markets show signs of relief, with Asian equity indexes rising amid lower oil prices. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0241 ET - The shock to the global economy from the Middle East hostilities will likely last longer than originally expected, Erste Group analysts say in a note. At the same time, however, it is not yet too late to keep the economic consequences in check, they say. "For us, this means relatively short-term impacts on inflation and growth, which is what we currently anticipate," they say. U.S. President Trump is interested in neither a prolonged war nor consistently high oil and fuel prices, while Iran needs the revenue from oil and gas sales and won't want to jeopardize its current oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, the analysts say. "We therefore expect shipping through the strait to normalize in the coming weeks." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
2247 ET - The Singapore dollar consolidates against its U.S. counterpart in the Asian session. "We are ultimately cautious in reading too much into what the U.S. side is claiming at this point," MUFG Bank's Michael Wan says. He notes President Trump's claim that U.S.-Iran negotiations are continuing. "We continue to think that negotiations will be very difficult, and hence our message to clients in Asia is to look to engage in some additional hedges if better levels in markets allow and/or reduce some risk as we head into the weekend," the senior currency analyst says in a research report. The U.S. dollar is little changed at 1.2777 Singapore dollars, according to LSEG data. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
1107 ET - Service providers and manufacturers differed in future sentiment for business output in March, according to a survey from S&P Global. In manufacturing, war-related concerns were countered by reduced worries over the adverse impact of tariffs and hopes of strengthening domestic demand for U.S.-made goods, resulting in growth expectations improving to their highest for 13 months, the survey said. Conversely, service providers signaled their weakest outlook since last October, commonly citing concerns over the impact of high energy prices on the cost of living, as well as higher interest rates, financial market worries and war related disruptions to travel. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com; @jessica_coacci)
0851 ET - Bitcoin struggles for direction as uncertainty over the Iran war remains elevated. President Trump said Monday that the U.S. would postpone military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure for five days after constructive talks but Iran denied any negotiations took place. Trump's comments helped calm global risk sentiment and boost cryptocurrencies, LMAX Group's Joel Kruger says in a note. "Looking ahead, the tone remains cautiously constructive." If global risk sentiment is supported and flows continue to stabilize, bitcoin appears well-positioned for further appreciation with ether likely to follow, he says. Bitcoin last trades flat at $70,894 after earlier gains, LSEG data show. Ether is flat at $2,163. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0730 ET - The dollar could stay confined to a tight range in the near term due to uncertainty over the Middle East conflict, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. The dollar briefly fell Monday on reduced demand for safe havens and lower oil prices due to America's energy independence after President Trump said the U.S. would postpone military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure for five days. Traders will be eager to hear, particularly from Iran, whether there's any realistic chance of ceasefire negotiations, Turner says. "Until then, any further rally in risk assets and selloff in the dollar will prove limited." The DXY dollar index rises 0.3% to 99.280. ING expects it to trade in a range of 99.00-100.00 for now. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0453 ET - The euro could stay weaker against the dollar this week as a swift end to the Middle East conflict looks unlikely, keeping energy prices elevated, Commerzbank's Volkmar Baur says in a note. President Trump announced Monday that the U.S. would postpone attacks against Iranian energy infrastructure for five days following constructive talks but Iran denied such discussions took place. The postponement shifts the focus to Saturday, Baur says. The risk premium in the oil market that was priced out Monday is therefore likely to slowly build again over the course of the week unless there's positive news on talks, or if it becomes clear that ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz, he says. The euro falls 0.2% to $1.1592. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0427 ET - Copper prices fall back below the $12,000 mark due to concerns over the impact of the Iran war on global economic growth and inflation. "Copper, a bellwether for the global economy, has been under pressure as the Middle East conflict has sapped risk appetite across financial markets," ANZ analysts write. Three-month futures on the London Metal Exchange are down 1.9% to $11,982.50 a metric ton after rising in the previous trading session, when President Trump said the U.S. would postpone strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and signalled progress in talks. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0411 ET - The flip-flopping of U.S President Trump, "saying one thing one moment and then something completely different the other," while at the same time nothing is corroborated by other concerned parties, is creating confusion and pandemonium for financial markets, analysts at First Abu Dhabi Bank say in a note. Coupled with the deteriorating war environment, this leaves conflicting stories which are triggering wild swings in financial asset prices, the analysts say. "While we remain optimistic that common sense--and military de-escalation--will prevail in the near-term, we are also cognisant that the mixed and often incoherent messaging coming from the Oval Office, will only fuel continued market volatility," they say. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 25, 2026 03:44 ET (07:44 GMT)
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