BOE More Likely to Extend Hold Than Hike as Economy Suffers -- Market Talk

Dow Jones03-25 17:22

0922 GMT - An extended Bank of England interest-rate pause is more likely than hikes, Capital Economics' Ruth Gregory says in a note. The energy-price shock prompted by the Iran war is likely to extinguish U.K. growth and add to the already-high unemployment rate, she says. While a larger and more persistent inflation shock could force the BOE to hike, any tightening cycle would probably be small and short, she says. After inflation was unchanged at 3.0% in February, the rise in oil prices probably raised inflation by 0.3 percentage points in March. "In our baseline scenario, we now think CPI inflation could rise to a peak of 4.6% in the fourth quarter," Gregory says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 25, 2026 05:22 ET (09:22 GMT)

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The energy-price shock prompted by the Iran war is likely to extinguish U.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TKKD.SI\">K</a>. growth and add to the already-high unemployment rate, she says. While a larger and more persistent inflation shock could force the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00710\">BOE</a> to hike, any tightening cycle would probably be small and short, she says. After inflation was unchanged at 3.0% in February, the rise in oil prices probably raised inflation by 0.3 percentage points in March. \"In our baseline scenario, we now think CPI inflation could rise to a peak of 4.6% in the fourth quarter,\" Gregory says. 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