The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1058 ET - Yields on U.K. government bonds climbed after the Middle East war, which could lead investors to favor the relatively safe assets over riskier U.K. stocks, AJ Bell's Russ Mould says in a note. Rising gilt yields could discourage investors from taking more risk with shares or other riskier assets if safer options offer better returns, he says. "The higher the gilt yield goes, the less inclined, or obliged, investors may feel to pay up for alternative asset classes, such as shares." Ten-year gilt yields climbed to a nearly 18-year high of 5.118% this week before retreating to last trade at 4.843%, Tradeweb data show.(miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1028 ET - The euro remains under pressure against dollar as Iran shows little appetite for compromising with the U.S. in the Middle East conflict, City Index analyst Fawad Razaqzada says in a note. The U.S. sent Iran a 15-point plan--which Iran has been dismissive of--to end the war, the WSJ reports. The euro is unlikely to recover much versus the dollar in the near term unless there's a genuine shift in tone from Iran, Razaqzada says. "Positioning for a quick resolution feels premature." Iran's leverage through rising energy prices arguably outweighs military pressure from the U.S. and its allies, keeping a lid on any euro-dollar gains, he says. The euro falls 0.3% to $1.1573. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
1019 ET - Legalized sports betting is tied to rising consumer credit delinquency, New York Fed researchers Daniel Mangrum and Jacob Goss write. In legal counties, delinquency rates climb by more than 0.5 percentage points three years after legalization, "representing a noticeable deterioration" from a baseline of 10.7%, they say. The impact hits young borrowers hardest: credit card delinquency for those under 40 jumps 1.02 percentage points. Residents of states where betting remains illegal travel to neighboring legal counties to wager. While legal states can offset the financial costs of delinquencies with increased tax revenue, neighboring illegal ones can't, in an incentive for legalization, the authors say. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisni)
1000 ET - Financial sponsors like private-equity groups faced a challenging environment to pursue deals in the first quarter due to private credit market jitters and scrutiny on the impact of AI on their investments, data provider Mergermarket says. Investment activity from financial sponsors declined 14% on year to $143 billion in the first quarter to date, according to Mergermarket. Meanwhile, exit activity dropped 29% to $112.4 billion, Mergermarket says. Moreover, Middle East sovereign-wealth funds have participated in several big-ticket private-equity deals over the past year and the war in Iran raises the question of whether that will continue to be the case, Mergermarket says. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)
0952 ET - A sustained oil-price shock resulting from the Iran war would probably prove ultimately dollar negative, TD Securities strategists say in a note. America's energy independence should delay the impact on the U.S. compared to the EU and Asia, allowing growth and relative rate differentials to temporarily move in the dollar's favor, they say. "Eventually even the U.S. and the Fed will not be spared from the growth and macro implications of an extended disruption to energy markets." If the Fed continues to cut rates at the end of this year, the dollar should weaken over the medium term, they say. Concerns about U.S. deficits could also rise on the back of increased defense spending. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0947 ET - High-risk credit asset prices are expected to decline as investors price in private credit risk, ING's Timothy Rahill and Jeroen van den Broek say in a note. Liquidity challenges in the private-credit sphere are less likely to spread to the wider financial system but could affect lower-rated credit, the analysts say. "Whilst there is certainly unease rising, we do not expect a full implosion." (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0942 ET - The biggest net buyers of U.S. bonds in 2025 were foreign investors, mutual funds, pension funds and insurance firms, Barclays analysts say, citing the U.S. Federal Reserve Flow of Funds data. The group accounted for roughly 75% of the total demand excluding the Fed, they say. The investors bought U.S. Treasury bonds, corporate bonds, municipal bonds, and agencies' bonds. U.S. households shifted to net selling of U.S. bonds, the analysts say. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0935 ET - Canada's economic performance has not kept pace with the US since the mid-1990s, with the gap most pronounced in the last decade, a Statistics Canada study says. The data agency says Canada's poor productivity performance "is the principal reason why Canada is falling behind," the data agency says. The paper says Canada's relatively heavy reliance on small firms and weak business investment levels have contributed to its relative decline vis-a-vis the US. Immigration-fueled population growth helped offset some of Canada's underlying weakness, but that has stopped with federal authorities sharply scaling back the number of newcomers allowed to enter on temporary visas. If recent trends continue, "improvements in Canada's living standards will be slower than the US," Statistics Canada says. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
0918 ET - A sustained dollar selloff looks unlikely as there's little chance of the Iran war ending soon, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. The dollar falls as energy prices and safe-haven demand decline after news the U.S. sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war and mediators are pushing for a meeting between the two sides by Thursday. "It seems dangerous to position for an early resolution of the crisis, with the Iranians likely to want to take high energy prices as leverage in any negotiations." It's too early to expect a major dollar decline, Turner says. The DXY falls 0.1% to 99.353 and ING expects it trade in a range of 99.00-100.000 this week. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0915 ET - Rosenberg Research says it intends to pounce and "get back into the gold trade at the earliest opportunity," perhaps when the metal drops below $4,000 an ounce. The firm's founder, economist David Rosenberg, says gold has dropped 20% from its peak, in part because a slump in asset pricing has triggered a wave of margin calls. "Gold has been a casualty," he says. He adds other factors driving gold downward include the rise in USD and real rates following the start of the war in Iran, and speculators bailing on their gold trade after a surge earlier this year. Rosenberg says his firm took profits on its gold holdings, which reached a 20% exposure, but intends to add to its current 5% positioning. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com)
0910 ET - Sterling and the euro might struggle to sustain any gains if the Bank of England and European Central Bank raise interest rates more aggressively than markets expect, MUFG Bank's Lee Hardman says in a note. While faster rate rises could offer some near-term support for sterling and the euro, those gains would "ultimately prove short-lived if tighter monetary policy alongside higher energy prices trigger a deeper economic slowdown/recession for European economies." The softer growth momentum indicated by Tuesday's U.K. and eurozone purchasing managers' surveys could dampen expectations for more aggressive rate rises. However, the BOE and ECB are still likely to raise rates if the inflation shock proves more prolonged, he says. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0900 ET - A gradual calming in CoinMarketCap's Fear and Greed Index appears to underpin an improvement in bitcoin prices this month. Bitcoin is trading at $71,400 this morning, making it 5.4% that prices have improved in the past month, according to FactSet data. Meanwhile, CoinMarketCap's Fear and Greed Index is at 37--off from a high of 45 reached last week, but considerably higher than readings as low as 5 last month. Readings between 20 and 40 are considered "fear," but some analysts call for upside in prices in the short-term. Hopes that the conflict in the Middle East may be getting closer to a resolution are part of the optimism. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 25, 2026 10:58 ET (14:58 GMT)
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