The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0204 GMT - The mild pullback in Australia's headline inflation in February won't allay the Reserve Bank of Australia's concerns about upside risks to the inflation outlook, says Abhijit Surya, economist at Capital Economics. There is still a strong case for continued policy tightening, he adds. The fall in headline inflation in February will provide cold comfort to the RBA, given that the slowdown was driven entirely by a deepening of automotive fuel deflation, he says. Surya estimates that automotive fuel inflation will surge to 25% on year in March. (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)
0200 GMT - The Reserve Bank of Australia likely has "little reason" to ease its hawkish monetary-policy stance, Moody's Analytics' Sunny Nguyen says in commentary. Australia's non-tradable inflation is still hovering near 5%, rents are edging higher, and the oil shock stemming from the Middle East conflict has yet to hit the March inflation data, the head of Australia Economics says. Also, the Australian Bureau of Statistics was unusually pointed in noting that fuel prices fell 'prior to the Middle East conflict,' she says. "That framing is deliberate," Nguyen says. "March will be a very different story," she says, adding Australia's headline inflation could spike toward 4.5%. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0143 GMT - While Australia's slightly softer-than-expected consumer price index report for February is encouraging news, it doesn't rule out a further rate hike by the central bank in May, says David Bassanese, chief economist at BetaShares. To be sure, it's likely that the 1Q26 inflation report next month will be uncomfortably high, leaving the RBA under pressure to raise rates again in May, he adds. News of a possible peace deal in Iran can't come quickly enough, Bassanese adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
0141 GMT - The Bank of Japan's policy board saw little impact from its December interest-rate hike to 0.75%, according to minutes from the central bank's January meeting. Some members noted that the lending attitudes of banks and the financial positions of firms remained favorable on the whole. Another member said that while small companies or firms with super-long-term investment projects might face an increased interest burden, the corporate sector has largely been able to absorb these costs thanks to currently solid business conditions.(megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)
0134 GMT - The impact of the Australia-EU trade deal is limited, from a narrow GDP lens, says Sunny Nguyen at Moody's Analytics. "Beef quotas are incremental, and cheaper German cars won't change Australia's inflation or growth trajectory." The significance lies in making trade flows more resilient to political disruptions. Securing dependable partners has become a priority as both sides manage risk, the economist says. Australia sends around a third of its exports to China, and past episodes show how exposing that can be. Europe has similar concerns as its green transition depends on lithium, rare earths and inputs dominated by China. Australia's resource base can help address that gap, Nguyen writes. Over time, the stability offered by the deal can support investment, planning and confidence, even if it doesn't boost headline growth. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)
0123 GMT - Asian currencies could face renewed volatility as optimism over U.S.-Iran talks looks premature, with negotiations likely to remain difficult, MUFG Bank's Michael Wan says. "We are ultimately cautious in reading too much into what the U.S. side is claiming at this point in time," Wan says. "The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the greater the chance of fuel shortages showing up across Asia," he adds. Wan notes domestic fuel prices are now much higher in Asia, pointing to diesel and gasoline pump prices in the Philippines jumping by 60%-90% this month. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0113 GMT - The Bank of Japan's policy board is increasingly concerned about the effects of a weak yen on the nation's economy, according to minutes from the bank's January meeting. Many members believe Japanese companies have passed on higher import costs caused by the yen's depreciation to consumers in recent years. One member noted that even low-priced imported goods have become less likely to curb inflation due to the weaker currency. "It had become more likely that exchange rate factors would push up prices, against the background of the rising dependence on imports that had been observed in domestic demand," the member said. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)
0037 GMT - Asian currencies consolidate against the dollar in early trade. The "markets will likely remain cautious as investors juggle Middle East geopolitical risks and volatile oil prices, which continue to drive inflation expectations," UOB's Global Economics & Markets Research team says in a note. Participants will probably "focus on the developments in the Middle East especially the interaction between the U.S. and Iran and the prospects of reopening of Strait of Hormuz," the team adds. The dollar is little changed at 158.75 yen and is 0.2% lower at 1,493.14 won, while the Australian dollar is flat at $0.6996, FactSet data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0021 GMT - JGB futures rise in early Tokyo trade. Expectations of a cease-fire between the U.S.-Israel side and the Iran side and the resulting decline in oil prices are likely to provide support to the JGB market, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities' fixed income strategists say in commentary. On the other hand, however, it remains unclear whether negotiations between the U.S. and Iran will progress, the strategists add. Benchmark 10-year JGB futures are 0.28 yen higher at Y131.29. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0020 GMT - Japanese stocks are broadly higher due to continued hopes for possible negotiations between the U.S. and Iran to end the war. Metals and chip-related stocks are leading gains. Mitsui Kinzoku is up 7.9% and Tokyo Electron Ltd. is 4.3% higher. The dollar is at 158.70 yen, compared with Y158.67 as of Tuesday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are closely watching developments in the Middle East as well as any Japanese government responses to the shortage of energy and petrochemical products. The Nikkei Stock Average is up 3.0% at 53811.99. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)
2348 GMT - Japanese stocks may rise thanks to continued hopes for U.S.-Iran talks to end the war. Nikkei futures are up 1.6% at 53220 on the SGX. The dollar is at 158.69 yen, little changed from Y158.67 as of Tuesday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are focusing on developments in Iran as well as any Japanese government responses to a shortage of energy and petrochemical products. The Nikkei Stock Average rose 1.4% to 52252.28 on Tuesday.(kosaku.narioka@wsj.com)
2027 GMT - The world will require an estimated $106 trillion in investments to meet its infrastructure needs in the next 14 years, according to McKinsey & Co. Capital is needed not only for "traditional assets such as roads, ports, bridges and power grids but also for the next generation of those assets, [as well as] data centers, charging stations, fiber-optic networks, and more," the consulting firm says. Private-market fund managers are stepping up, having raised a record of nearly $200 billion for infrastructure-focused strategies last year, as infrastructure is the asset class to which investors most want to increase allocations, McKinsey says. Such strategies, however, face hurdles such as longer holding periods, higher debt costs and rising asset prices, it adds. "The ability to drive value creation will become increasingly foundational." (luis.garcia@wsj.com; @lhvgarcia)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 24, 2026 22:04 ET (02:04 GMT)
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