The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0609 GMT - Monday's optimism about the war ending without the U.S. first making an attempt to secure and control the Strait of Hormuz, or without getting more leverage in talks with Iran, still seems misplaced, Macquarie Group's Thierry Wizman says in a note. The demands of the two sides seem unbridgeable and the U.S. amphibious assault forces are still making their way to the theater of operations, the global FX and rates strategist says. It seems as if the War has a few more weeks to go (to mid-April). The prediction markets are saying, too, that a ceasefire won't easily come before April, even late April, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0607 GMT - The longer oil prices stay high, the longer central banks will feel obligated to sound as if they will tighten policy, Macquarie Group's Thierry Wizman says in a note. "Yet 'hawkish" policies that come in response to supply-side induced inflation have been proven (empirically) to be the cause of much more financial stress than when monetary policy comes in response to an inflation that is demand-driven," the global FX and rates strategist says. Through the channel of monetary policy, the War and 'financial stress' are inextricably linked, and there is now a steep empirical trade-off between price stability and financial stability, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0544 GMT - The Bank of Japan could raise interest rates by 25 basis points each in June and December, with a possibility that the June hike may be front-loaded to April, says Sony Financial economist Masaaki Kanno. In 2027, two more interest-rate hikes are expected, bringing the policy rate to 1.75%, he says. This is Kanno's base-case scenario, which he assigns a 55% chance of realization. "Financial conditions will likely remain accommodative as the policy rate is expected to stay below the inflation rate throughout the forecast period," he says.(megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)
0524 GMT - Some market participants say the bar for Tokyo's currency intervention is high because the recent yen weakness has been dollar-driven. However, caution is now warranted, says Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities strategist Shota Ryu. Market chatter suggests that if Middle East tensions further inflate net yen shorts, authorities will likely label the move "speculative," regardless of the primary driver, he says. "Both the dollar-yen level and short-term yen-selling momentum could serve as critical factors in the decision to intervene," he says. "If the dollar breaks decisively above the 160 yen threshold, market players should be on high alert for intervention." The dollar is last at 158.92 yen. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 25, 2026 02:09 ET (06:09 GMT)
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