The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0947 ET - High-risk credit asset prices are expected to decline as investors price in private credit risk, ING's Timothy Rahill and Jeroen van den Broek say in a note. Liquidity challenges in the private-credit sphere are less likely to spread to the wider financial system but could affect lower-rated credit, the analysts say. "Whilst there is certainly unease rising, we do not expect a full implosion." (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0942 ET - The biggest net buyers of U.S. bonds in 2025 were foreign investors, mutual funds, pension funds and insurance firms, Barclays analysts say, citing the U.S. Federal Reserve Flow of Funds data. The group accounted for roughly 75% of the total demand excluding the Fed, they say. The investors bought U.S. Treasury bonds, corporate bonds, municipal bonds, and agencies' bonds. U.S. households shifted to net selling of U.S. bonds, the analysts say. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0935 ET - Canada's economic performance has not kept pace with the US since the mid-1990s, with the gap most pronounced in the last decade, a Statistics Canada study says. The data agency says Canada's poor productivity performance "is the principal reason why Canada is falling behind," the data agency says. The paper says Canada's relatively heavy reliance on small firms and weak business investment levels have contributed to its relative decline vis-a-vis the US. Immigration-fueled population growth helped offset some of Canada's underlying weakness, but that has stopped with federal authorities sharply scaling back the number of newcomers allowed to enter on temporary visas. If recent trends continue, "improvements in Canada's living standards will be slower than the US," Statistics Canada says. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
0918 ET - A sustained dollar selloff looks unlikely as there's little chance of the Iran war ending soon, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. The dollar falls as energy prices and safe-haven demand decline after news the U.S. sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war and mediators are pushing for a meeting between the two sides by Thursday. "It seems dangerous to position for an early resolution of the crisis, with the Iranians likely to want to take high energy prices as leverage in any negotiations." It's too early to expect a major dollar decline, Turner says. The DXY falls 0.1% to 99.353 and ING expects it trade in a range of 99.00-100.000 this week. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0915 ET - Rosenberg Research says it intends to pounce and "get back into the gold trade at the earliest opportunity," perhaps when the metal drops below $4,000 an ounce. The firm's founder, economist David Rosenberg, says gold has dropped 20% from its peak, in part because a slump in asset pricing has triggered a wave of margin calls. "Gold has been a casualty," he says. He adds other factors driving gold downward include the rise in USD and real rates following the start of the war in Iran, and speculators bailing on their gold trade after a surge earlier this year. Rosenberg says his firm took profits on its gold holdings, which reached a 20% exposure, but intends to add to its current 5% positioning. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com)
0910 ET - Sterling and the euro might struggle to sustain any gains if the Bank of England and European Central Bank raise interest rates more aggressively than markets expect, MUFG Bank's Lee Hardman says in a note. While faster rate rises could offer some near-term support for sterling and the euro, those gains would "ultimately prove short-lived if tighter monetary policy alongside higher energy prices trigger a deeper economic slowdown/recession for European economies." The softer growth momentum indicated by Tuesday's U.K. and eurozone purchasing managers' surveys could dampen expectations for more aggressive rate rises. However, the BOE and ECB are still likely to raise rates if the inflation shock proves more prolonged, he says. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0900 ET - A gradual calming in CoinMarketCap's Fear and Greed Index appears to underpin an improvement in bitcoin prices this month. Bitcoin is trading at $71,400 this morning, making it 5.4% that prices have improved in the past month, according to FactSet data. Meanwhile, CoinMarketCap's Fear and Greed Index is at 37--off from a high of 45 reached last week, but considerably higher than readings as low as 5 last month. Readings between 20 and 40 are considered "fear," but some analysts call for upside in prices in the short-term. Hopes that the conflict in the Middle East may be getting closer to a resolution are part of the optimism. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0850 ET - The front end of the Canadian yield looks "cheap to us, on both an outright basis and tactically versus the US," says Andrew Kelvin, head of Canadian and global rates strategy at TD Securities. Traders are now pricing in nearly three quarter-point rate increases from the Bank of Canada before year's end, in anticipation of higher energy prices lifting inflation. Kelvin says the selloff in short-term government of Canada bonds doesn't reflect underlying domestic conditions that include a weak labor market, excess spare capacity, and a sharp slowdown in core inflation. Core CPI strips out volatile items like food and energy. Kelvin says there is a possibility that BOC might have to raise rates, "but we'd emphasize the near-term risks probably skew toward easing." (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
0848 ET - Credit spreads on European financial services sector bonds trade wider compared to 2025 levels due to concerns about private credit risk, ING's Suvi Kosonen says in a note. There are concerns that prolonged liquidity challenges in private credit funds could spread to the traditional banking sector in case the funds tap banks' credit lines, Kosonen says. "Bonds issues by private credit funds have underperformed this year, both in euros and in U.S. dollars, reflecting the weaker outlook," she says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0844 ET - Hope is cautiously back as global markets sense a U.S.-Iran deal may be near, reviving demand for Treasurys and sending yields lower. Oil futures decline more than 4%, while the WSJ Dollar Index rises 0.1%. Negotiators remain far apart, but talks of a potential meeting tomorrow spark cautious hopes of an end to the constraints on energy markets. Investors keep betting the Fed will remain on hold for the time being. The 10-year yield slips to 4.348% from yesterday's 4.390%. The two-year is down to 3.896% from 3.926%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
0817 ET - The decline in Germany's Ifo index shows the Middle East war has blasted away resurgent optimism among businesses, ING's Carsten Brzeski says in a note. "Coming from the highest level since last summer, Germany's most prominent leading indicator took a severe hit as the war in the Middle East, soaring energy prices, and new uncertainty dented previous optimism." The index declined to 86.4 in March, from 88.4. However, the conflict has changed a lot but not everything. The situation isn't yet comparable to 2022, when energy prices and fiscal stimulus during the pandemic fueled an inflation wave and then a wage-price spiral, Brzeski says. The drivers of Germany's rebound, especially fiscal stimulus for defense and infrastructure, are still present, he says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
0807 ET - Bitcoin rises to a one-week high on cautious optimism for a resolution to the Middle East conflict. The U.S. sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war, The Wall Street Journal reports. The plan centers around President Trump's previous demands of Iran, including dismantling main nuclear sites and fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Mediators are pushing for a U.S.-Iran meeting by Thursday. However, Iran has indicated a high bar to re-enter cease-fire negotiations. "Crypto markets are trading more in line with broader risk sentiment again, stabilizing after earlier weakness tied to the oil-driven risk-off move," Saxo Bank analysts say in a note. Bitcoin rises 2.6% to a high of $72,0003, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 25, 2026 09:47 ET (13:47 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Comments