MARKET WRAPS
Watch For:
Germany ifo business climate index; U.K. CPI, PPI; no major corporate trading updates expected
Opening Call:
European stock futures traded higher early Wednesday. Asian stock benchmarks gained; the dollar edged lower; Treasury yields fell slightly; oil futures declined; gold gained.
Equities:
Stock futures point to a higher open in Europe on Wednesday amid hopes for a resolution to the Middle East conflict.
President Trump said Tuesday that Iran wants to "make a deal" and the U.S. has sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war, which centers largely around previous Trump administration demands of Tehran. Mediators are pushing to have a meeting arranged between U.S. and Iranian officials in the next 48 hours but both sides remain far apart, Arab officials and a U.S. official familiar with the discussion said.
There seems to be renewed optimism about de-escalation in the Middle East, XS.com's Antonio Di Giacomo said. "Even so, the lack of clarity about the negotiations' actual progress keeps investors cautious," he added.
Forex:
"We are ultimately cautious in reading too much into what the U.S. side is claiming at this point," MUFG Bank's Michael Wan said, noting Trump's claim that U.S.-Iran negotiations are continuing.
"We continue to think that negotiations will be very difficult, and hence our message to clients in Asia is to look to engage in some additional hedges if better levels in markets allow and/or reduce some risk as we head into the weekend," the senior currency analyst said.
Bonds:
It may not be the time to buy long-term Treasurys just yet, said Franklin Templeton's Sonal Desai. "We are disinclined to extend duration into the current sell-off in U.S. 10-years, because we think that there may be a bit more for this to go."
Uncertainty is the main reason to remain cautious. "It's premature to either be calling for catastrophic global consequences...but equally, it would be completely wrong to assume that we're going to go back to business as usual in a few weeks' time."
Energy:
At the center of the supply squeeze in the Middle East, traders are paying an eye-watering $160 a barrel for the Emirati oil that can dodge the Strait of Hormuz, far above global benchmarks WTI and Brent. Those sky-high prices, traders say, are a harbinger of where the rest of the market could be heading if the Persian Gulf isn't reopened soon.
"The disruption is so massive, we will turn into full panic mode if this situation is not resolved rather quickly," said Helge Andre Martinsen, an energy analyst at DNB Carnegie.
Metals:
The go-to safe haven of the past year has been a disappointment since the Iran war began. However, strategists aren't giving up on gold over the medium term.
"The longer the energy disruption goes on and the more sizable the inflationary and, importantly, growth impacts become, we still think the backdrop for gold will likely quickly flip materially bullish, amplified by a sharp shift toward Fed easing as the employment side of the Fed's dual mandate takes precedence," said Gregory Shearer, JPMorgan's head of base and precious metals strategy.
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The LME aluminum price may rise further than previously thought, as Middle East disruptions and a Mozambique smelter shutdown reduce global primary aluminum supply by 1% versus Goldman Sachs's previous forecast.
The bank projects a 2Q deficit of around 900,000 tons, which is likely to be the largest since 2019. GS raises its LME aluminum price forecast for 2Q to $3,200 a ton from $3,100 a ton previously.
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The iron ore market is currently pulled by both bullish and bearish factors, Nanhua Futures said. Weak macro demand growth is weighing on longer-term prices and shipments are gradually recovering, while rising fuel costs are still supporting prices.
Overall, there is a "strong near-term, weak long-term" outlook in market fundamentals, with prices supported by costs and tight spot supply but capped by demand weakness and expectations of increased supply, Nanhua added.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
The Oil Supply Crunch Is Spreading From the Gulf to the Rest of the World
For a glimpse of how much higher energy prices could still soar, look beyond the prices Wall Street analysts normally track for West Texas Intermediate in the U.S. and Brent in Europe.
At the center of the supply squeeze in the Middle East, traders are paying an eye-watering $160 a barrel for the Emirati oil that can dodge the Strait of Hormuz, far above those global benchmarks.
A bad Treasury auction is offering a glimpse into the anxiety on Wall Street over the Iran war
Wall Street jitters about the Iran war spilled over Tuesday into a vital part of U.S. financial markets that typically hum along without a hitch.
Reports of Pentagon plans to deploy roughly 3,000 soldiers from the Army's 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East were blamed Tuesday for a weak $69 billion sale of 2-year Treasury notes.
Arm Holdings to Sell Its Own Chips. Some Customers Could Become Rivals.
Arm Holdings has crossed the Rubicon. In announcing a new data center CPU chip on Tuesday, it is putting itself into direct competition with its customers, notably Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft.
At its core, Arm makes intellectual property that chip makers license to build their own chips. Arm customers also include Apple, Qualcomm, Samsung, and Broadcom. Just about every smartphone, tablet and even Mac computers run on top of Arm designs.
OpenAI Scraps Sora Video Platform Months After Launch
OpenAI is planning to pull the plug on its Sora video platform, a product it released to great fanfare last year that has since fallen from public view.
The move is one of a number of steps OpenAI is taking to refocus on business and coding functions ahead of a potential initial public offering as soon as the fourth quarter of this year.
U.S. Government's Ban on Anthropic Looks Like Punishment, Judge Says
SAN FRANCISCO-A federal judge on Tuesday said the U.S. government appeared to be punishing Anthropic by banning the artificial-intelligence company-in retribution for bringing into the public view its contracting dispute with the Pentagon.
"It looks like an attempt to cripple Anthropic," U.S. District Judge Rita F. Lin of the Northern District of California said during a court hearing. Such actions "of course would be a violation of the First Amendment."
Block CFO Says Deep Job Cuts From AI Are an Inevitability for Companies
PALO ALTO, Calif.-Block warned that deep job cuts across companies will be unavoidable amid greater adoption of artificial intelligence.
After announcing a 40% workforce reduction last month, the payments company has found itself at the center of a debate spreading across American corporations over how extensively businesses should cut staff as AI tools increasingly take over certain tasks.
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Expected Major Events for Wednesday
07:00/SWE: Feb PPI
07:00/UK: Feb Producer Price Index
07:00/UK: Feb CPI
07:00/DEN: Feb Retail Sales Index
08:00/SPN: Feb PPI
08:00/SWE: Mar Consumer Tendency Survey
08:00/SWE: Mar Monthly Business Tendency Survey
09:00/GER: Mar ifo Business Climate Index
09:00/ICE: Feb Labour Force Survey
09:30/UK: Jan UK House Price Index
14:00/BEL: Mar Business Confidence Survey
15:59/UKR: 4Q POSTPONED: Unemployment
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 25, 2026 01:02 ET (05:02 GMT)
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