Why Polymarket's $20 Billion Valuation Ask Might Actually Be Conservative.

Benzinga_recent_news03-27 07:09

Kalshi just raised at an 83.5x fee multiple. If you apply even a fraction of that to Polymarket’s projected fees, the platform’s reported $20 billion valuation target starts to look like a discount. ...

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Messari report predicts $263.5M fees by 2025.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"benzinga.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU1169589451.USD":"ALLSPRING (LUX)  U.S. SELECT EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","DKUP":"2倍做多DKNG ETF-T-REX","DKNX":"2倍做多DKNG ETF-Defiance","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","BK4588":"碎股","DKNG":"DraftKings Inc.","BK4565":"NFT概念","LU0240878834.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL SMALL COMPANIES \"A\" (USD) INC AV","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","DRAY":"YieldMax DKNG Option Income Strategy ETF","LU0240877869.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL SMALL COMPANIES \"A\" ACC","LU1169590202.USD":"ALLSPRING (LUX)  U.S. SELECT EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4150":"赌场与赌博"},"translate_title":"为什么Polymarket 200亿美元的估值要求实际上可能很保守。","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DRAY":0.6,"DKUP":0.6,"DKNX":0.6,"DKNG":1},"content_text":"Kalshi just raised at an 83.5x fee multiple. \nIf you apply even a fraction of that to Polymarket’s projected fees, the platform’s reported $20 billion valuation target starts to look like a discount.\nA new valuation report from Messari researcher 0xWeiler builds the case from the ground up. \nKalshi raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation on March 19, led by Coatue Management. With $263.5 million in 2025 fees, that establishes the 83.5x benchmark.\n0xWeiler’s base case for Polymarket uses a 30x multiple on 2028 projected fees, well below Kalshi’s current figure. \nThe model benchmarks against Kalshi, DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG), and traditional exchange infrastructure, then discounts for fee multiple compression as the revenue base grows.\nPrediction markets processed $23.2 billion in February 2026, up over 1,200% year-over-year. Polymarket captured roughly a third of that, with sports, crypto, and politics each driving meaningful share.\nThe report projects volume growth through 2028 using back-to-back NFL season comparisons as the baseline. The base case models 50% annual growth, with a bear at 30% and bull at 100%. Even the bear case implies a sector that dwarfs what existed 18 months ago.\nOn March 30, Polymarket expands taker fees across nearly all categories for the first time. Crypto peaks at 1.80%, politics at 1.00%. Only geopolitics stays free. With $9.55 billion in recent 30-day volume, annualized fee revenue may approach $300 million.\nA POLY token and airdrop have been confirmed by Polymarket’s team. \nIf the token launches at or near the $20 billion figure, early users who farmed volume on the platform could see significant payouts. \nThat also introduces a risk: much of Polymarket’s current volume may be airdrop-driven, which could evaporate once the incentive disappears.\nOther risks include competition from Kalshi, Hyperliquid, and Robinhood, and increased legal pressure. \nImage: Shutterstock\nTo add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.38.0","shortVersion":"4.38.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2622897557","isCrawlerRequest":true}