Asia Central Bankers Have Some Room to Hedge Against Stagflation -- Market Talk

Dow Jones03-25 16:45

0845 GMT - The Middle East crisis is shifting some rate trajectories in Asia, OCBC economists say. Some central banks previously biased to further--albeit marginal--easing such as BOT, BSP and the RBI will close the door on rate cuts, says Lavanya Venkateswaran. OCBC has ditched its 50bp rate-cut call for Indonesia, expecting it to remain on hold in 2026. The odds of rate hikes are increasing in some places, but much depends on the duration and persistence of higher energy prices. Since policy rates are already at or close to neutral for most of the region, Venkateswaran thinks policymakers can afford to wait. This allows them to hedge against stagflation risks, which are more pronounced than during the 2022 shock as inflation is higher and policy rates aren't at record lows. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 25, 2026 04:45 ET (08:45 GMT)

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Some central banks previously biased to further--albeit marginal--easing such as BOT, BSP and the RBI will close the door on rate cuts, says Lavanya Venkateswaran. OCBC has ditched its 50bp rate-cut call for Indonesia, expecting it to remain on hold in 2026. The odds of rate hikes are increasing in some places, but much depends on the duration and persistence of higher energy prices. Since policy rates are already at or close to neutral for most of the region, Venkateswaran thinks policymakers can afford to wait. This allows them to hedge against stagflation risks, which are more pronounced than during the 2022 shock as inflation is higher and policy rates aren't at record lows. 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