The latest Market Talks covering Energy and Utilities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.
1205 ET - TransAlta has a number of catalysts ahead of it that can push the stock forward, says National Bank of Canada's Patrick Kenny, upgrading the stock to outperform from sector perform. The stock's recent 22% pullback no longer reflects the value of its upcoming phase 1 Keephills data center project, the US$600 million Centralia gas conversion, or a recovery in Alberta power prices toward the mid-C$70s to mid-C$80s megawatt-hour range, the analyst says in a report. He notes that at its investor day, TransAlta outlined a path to double-digit Ebitda growth through 2029, supported by 900-1,300 megawatt of expected Alberta load growth and incremental contracted cash flows. National Bank maintains its share price target at C$22. The stock is up 6% to C$17.49. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)
1127 ET - The oil market can't be considered to have stabilized until there is clear and sustained evidence that flows through the Strait of Hormuz have normalized, Neil Crosby of Sparta Commodities says in a note. Oil markets are increasingly difficult to trade while geopolitical headlines rather than fundamentals drive price moves, he says. "What is being presented as de-escalation may not represent a genuine shift." While crude prices have remained relatively contained, diesel and jet fuel markets continue to show significant tightness. "This divergence highlights a deeper issue: the physical supply crunch has not been resolved." WTI and Brent are up 3.6% and 2.8%, respectively. Nymex diesel is up 5.9%, trading at its highest level since October 2022. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1121 ET - Desjardins Group chief economist Jimmy Jean says the firm is upgrading its Canadian economic outlook, due to an anticipated boost to investment and sales for country's energy sector. Jean says growth in 1Q is set to rebound after a contraction in the previous quarter. The upgrade starts in 2Q, Jean says, with Desjardins expecting annualized growth of 2.5%. Offsetting the boost to income from elevated energy prices will be higher inflation that is expected to squeeze households, he adds. "While the terms of trade are improving overall, gains are partial and not equally distributed," Jean says. He adds the boom in energy comes amid a gloomier outlook from a weak labor market, trade-policy uncertainty and an extended housing slump. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
0940 ET - TD Securities is lifting quarterly and annual price projections for crude oil and most base metals amid the ongoing conflict in Iran, while sharply reducing precious metals price expectations due to higher inflation expectations, a strong U.S. dollar and sharply higher yields across the curve. However, it expects gold, silver and platinum to recover strongly as the energy shock wanes later in the year. TD's 2026 WTI and Brent annual average prices are lifted 36% to $85.25/barrel and $89.75/barrel. Its aluminum price forecast is hiked 17% to $3,481/ton. Gold and silver annual average projections are cut 1% to $4,800/oz and $74.75/oz, with platinum downgraded by 2% to $2,024/oz. (robb.stewart@wsj.com)
0903 ET - Oil futures are picking up some lost ground following yesterday's selloff on signs the U.S. is seeking a negotiated end to war with Iran. The market will still be demanding progress in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and even then time will be needed to repair oil infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. The "vastly overbought" market condition was relieved by yesterday's selloff, which left money managers and funds in a position to reload into the long side "should attempts fail by the White House toward diplomacy," the firm adds. WTI is up 4.3% at $91.89 a barrel and Brent is up 3.1% at $103.05 a barrel.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0856 ET - A bout of optimism in global markets fades as Tehran denies direct talks with the U.S. and fresh attacks by Iran on its Gulf neighbors temper hopes for a quick resolution. Treasury yields rise slightly, while the dollar strengthens and oil prices rise. U.S. March manufacturing PMI is expected to rise slightly, while the services survey is likely to slip, in a WSJ consensus. The 10-year yield is at 4.386%, up from 4.334% at yesterday's settle. The two-year rises to 3.897% from 3.830%. The WSJ Dollar Index rises 0.3%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
0439 ET - China Aviation Oil (Singapore) could post a modest net profit growth this year on higher costs and likely flat associate contributions, CGS International analysts write in a note. The brokerage forecasts the company's 2026 net profit to expand 4% to US$115 million. China Aviation Oil reported a 42% jump in 2025 net profit. The jet-fuel trader is likely to maintain an expansion in gross margin, though could be offset by rising procurement and freight costs. Associate contributions is expected to remain flat, as higher inventory capacity may be offset by weaker refueling volumes if oil prices remain high throughout the year. CGSI maintains an add rating on the stock, but raises the target price to S$2.68 from S$2.63. Shares are 3.7% lower at S$2.08. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0314 ET - President Trump's claim of "very good and productive" negotiations with Iran signals his attempt at de-escalation, according to Pepperstone's Michael Brown. After Trump said Washington and Tehran held conversations, Iran denied them, but "whether or not talks have taken place is somewhat immaterial," the research strategist says in a note. The move signals that Trump has reversed the ultimatum issued over the weekend and seems to be pursuing de-escalation for the first time since the conflict began. "We might finally be seeing a faint chink of light at the end of the tunnel when it comes to the ongoing Middle East conflict." (sherry.qin@wsj.com)
0116 ET - Energy shortage may not be a big concern for China in the near term, Nomura analysts say in a research note. Coal still accounts for more than half of China's domestic energy mix and provides a reliable domestic energy backstop, they say, adding that Beijing could ramp up domestic coal production in the coming weeks. China's resilient renewable energy expansion also strengthens its resilience, they add. China's limited fuel price hike also shows Beijing's efforts to cushion the oil price shock, they say. China's top economic planner announced a price hike of 1,160 yuan a ton for gasoline and 1,115 yuan a ton for diesel, which is around half the increase from a regular pricing mechanism, the analysts add.(sherry.qin@wsj.com)
0052 ET - Sinopec's 1Q results are expected to benefit from improved upstream earnings and inventory gains, Morningstar director Chokwai Lee says in a note. However, he anticipates the oil refiner will face pressure from rising freight costs, pricing controls on refined products and potential export restrictions following the energy shock triggered by the Iran war. "We see downside risk to refining margins should supply disruptions persist," Lee adds, cutting his 2026 net profit forecast by 9%. Morningstar raises its fair value estimate for H-shares to HK$5.70 from HK$5.50. Longer term, declining gasoline and diesel demand in China, driven by rising electric vehicles usage, is expected to weigh on refining margins, while its chemicals segment is projected to return to profitability only in 2028.(jason.chau@wsj.com)
2238 ET - Asian currencies weaken against the dollar in morning trading amid a cautious mood over President Trump's Truth Social post overnight that he will postpone military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure for five days. There is a significant economic disruption to Asia, and potential energy shortages are already arising from the Strait of Hormuz closure, affecting the region, MUFG Bank's Michael Wan says in a note. There could also be difficulty in U.S.-Iran negotiations going forward, the senior currency analyst adds. The dollar rises 0.8% to 1,498.10 won and climbs 1.0% to 32.57 baht, while the Australian dollar falls 0.4% to $0.6978, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
1959 ET - Surging prices of liquefied natural gas are strengthening cash flow for Woodside Energy and Santos and enabling them to cut debt faster, says UBS. Woodside and Santos are exposed to LNG spot pricing. UBS raises its 2026 forecast for the Japan Korea Marker, a benchmark LNG price in Asia, to US$23.60 per million British thermal units. Previously, it expected a price of US$13.00 per million British thermal units. UBS upgrades its 2026-2027 EPS forecasts for Woodside by 81% and 61%, respectively. For Santos, its 2026-2027 EPS forecasts rise by 71% and 44%. "Our base case assumes a further 2-3 weeks of disruption (until early April) and that flows via the Strait of Hormuz remain severely reduced and that critical energy infrastructure damage will sustain risk premiums for longer," UBS says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 24, 2026 12:20 ET (16:20 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Comments