The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1127 ET - The oil market can't be considered to have stabilized until there is clear and sustained evidence that flows through the Strait of Hormuz have normalized, Neil Crosby of Sparta Commodities says in a note. Oil markets are increasingly difficult to trade while geopolitical headlines rather than fundamentals drive price moves, he says. "What is being presented as de-escalation may not represent a genuine shift." While crude prices have remained relatively contained, diesel and jet fuel markets continue to show significant tightness. "This divergence highlights a deeper issue: the physical supply crunch has not been resolved." WTI and Brent are up 3.6% and 2.8%, respectively. Nymex diesel is up 5.9%, trading at its highest level since October 2022. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1124 ET - CBOT corn futures slide 0.1% in morning trade, as the five-day pause in the fighting between the U.S. and Iran seen as an opportunity for de-escalation of the conflict. But if not, then fertilizer availability looks to continue to be a pressure point for U.S. farmers. "What's a farmer to do? Plant less corn," says Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group. If less corn is planted, then that means less corn is available to sell to U.S ethanol plants - which may cause ethanol prices to jump. The EIA's next weekly status report is scheduled to be published tomorrow at 11 a.m. EDT. Corn turns down after trading higher for most of the morning, while soybeans fall 0.3% and wheat is down 0.6%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1121 ET - Desjardins Group chief economist Jimmy Jean says the firm is upgrading its Canadian economic outlook, due to an anticipated boost to investment and sales for country's energy sector. Jean says growth in 1Q is set to rebound after a contraction in the previous quarter. The upgrade starts in 2Q, Jean says, with Desjardins expecting annualized growth of 2.5%. Offsetting the boost to income from elevated energy prices will be higher inflation that is expected to squeeze households, he adds. "While the terms of trade are improving overall, gains are partial and not equally distributed," Jean says. He adds the boom in energy comes amid a gloomier outlook from a weak labor market, trade-policy uncertainty and an extended housing slump. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
1049 ET - Lean hog futures are down 0.1% ahead of the upcoming Hogs and Pigs report scheduled for Thursday. The data is expected to show a slight uptick in total hog inventory, says Steiner Consulting Group in a note. "It will be interesting to see how USDA revises the figures reported in previous surveys and what that may tell us about future revisions," says the firm, adding that they speculate that the USDA will revise the June to August pig crop higher. Live cattle futures are down 0.3%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1014 ET - Fertilizer prices will remain elevated over the long term because of damage to infrastructure in the Middle East, Jefferies analysts write. Constraints to the export of ammonia caused by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz will push prices higher, the analysts say. Since February, contract prices have risen for ammonia and potash by 6% and 2%, respectively. Ammonia supply will be further reduced after Yara International paused production at its Pilbara plant in Australia, the analysts say. European fertilizer stocks gain, with ammonia-producer Yara climbing 4.2%, while potash-producer K+S gains 3.4%. Chemicals group IMCD gains 5.1%. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)
0958 ET - Weakness in the ruble is making Russian wheat exports more attractive for buyers this month, says SovEcon in a note. The war in Iran and the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz are creating more of a scramble for wheat importers to make sure they can get the wheat they need, which is supporting Russian demand along with the favorable movement in currency for buyers. "After a prolonged period dominated by surplus-driven narratives, the market appears less prepared for emerging risks, with importers becoming more active," says the firm in a note. SovEcon raised its 2025/26 Russian wheat export forecast by 1.1 million metric tons to 46.5 MMT, and raised its 2026/27 estimate by 2.1 MMT to 43.8 MMT. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0951 ET - Sugar prices trade at a five-month high, boosted by higher oil prices as the war in the Middle East entered its fourth week. In early U.S. trading, futures rise 1.7% to 16 cents a pound, the highest level since October and up more than 10% on the month. "The reason is that higher oil prices make ethanol production more lucrative," Carsten Fritsch from Commerzbank says. "If more sugarcane is used for ethanol production, correspondingly less is available for sugar production, which limits the supply for export." However, further price increases are likely limited as India--a major sugar exporter--is increasing its exports to capitalize on higher prices and the depreciation of its currency, Fritsch says. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0944 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are modestly higher after falling along with oil yesterday, with gains limited by a warm weather outlook. The natural gas market "can't decide if its correlated to oil or not, while the prompt fundamentals are pretty much on hold," Scott Shelton of TP ICAP says in a note. Longer-term questions for the market include whether high LNG prices will reduce export terminal maintenance in 2Q, or high oil prices and the refill of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve will lead to greater U.S. oil production and more associated gas growth, he says. Nymex natural gas is up 1.4% at $2.931/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0940 ET - TD Securities is lifting quarterly and annual price projections for crude oil and most base metals amid the ongoing conflict in Iran, while sharply reducing precious metals price expectations due to higher inflation expectations, a strong U.S. dollar and sharply higher yields across the curve. However, it expects gold, silver and platinum to recover strongly as the energy shock wanes later in the year. TD's 2026 WTI and Brent annual average prices are lifted 36% to $85.25/barrel and $89.75/barrel. Its aluminum price forecast is hiked 17% to $3,481/ton. Gold and silver annual average projections are cut 1% to $4,800/oz and $74.75/oz, with platinum downgraded by 2% to $2,024/oz. (robb.stewart@wsj.com)
0924 ET - This Friday's "Celebration of Agriculture" event at the White House is expected to include announcements about biofuels policy--and the market anticipates they will be favorable. "The EPA is expected to announce finalized renewable volume obligations on Friday with the biofuel and farmer groups invited to the announcement, which most are taking it that it will be good news for the biofuel industry and producers," says Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives in a note. Soybeans are lower in premarket trading, but favorable renewable fuels obligations may be supportive for going forward. The most-active contract is down 0.6%, while corn is up 0.3% and wheat is essentially flat. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0903 ET - Oil futures are picking up some lost ground following yesterday's selloff on signs the U.S. is seeking a negotiated end to war with Iran. The market will still be demanding progress in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and even then time will be needed to repair oil infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. The "vastly overbought" market condition was relieved by yesterday's selloff, which left money managers and funds in a position to reload into the long side "should attempts fail by the White House toward diplomacy," the firm adds. WTI is up 4.3% at $91.89 a barrel and Brent is up 3.1% at $103.05 a barrel.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0856 ET - A bout of optimism in global markets fades as Tehran denies direct talks with the U.S. and fresh attacks by Iran on its Gulf neighbors temper hopes for a quick resolution. Treasury yields rise slightly, while the dollar strengthens and oil prices rise. U.S. March manufacturing PMI is expected to rise slightly, while the services survey is likely to slip, in a WSJ consensus. The 10-year yield is at 4.386%, up from 4.334% at yesterday's settle. The two-year rises to 3.897% from 3.830%. The WSJ Dollar Index rises 0.3%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 24, 2026 12:15 ET (16:15 GMT)
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