The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0910 ET - The war in Iran sent fertilizer prices surging due to the disruption of trade through the Strait of Hormuz and damage done to energy infrastructure, but many farmers in the U.S. dodged that bullet--having already secured the fertilizer they needed soon after last fall's harvest. They may have a tougher time, however, locking down favorable prices when they go to renegotiate contracts for 2027, says professors with the University of Illinois. In a research note, researchers with the school's Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics say that average prices for anhydrous ammonia may be roughly $80 a ton more than in 2025, at $860 a ton, if the war quickly ends. If not, prices over $1,000 a ton are possible. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0904 ET - Rystad Energy estimates the cost to restore damaged energy infrastructure in the Middle East at $25 billion so far, and says it will likely rise further. But repairs will take more than just money, the firm's head of supply chain research Audun Martinsen says in a note. "The Gulf region's recovery will be defined less by financial capital and more by structural constraints," he says. Production backlogs at the few global suppliers of the gas turbines needed to repair Qatar's LNG plant at Ras Laffan, for example, means a full recovery could take up to five years. "While some assets may be restored within months, others could remain offline for years." (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0844 ET - Hope is cautiously back as global markets sense a U.S.-Iran deal may be near, reviving demand for Treasurys and sending yields lower. Oil futures decline more than 4%, while the WSJ Dollar Index rises 0.1%. Negotiators remain far apart, but talks of a potential meeting tomorrow spark cautious hopes of an end to the constraints on energy markets. Investors keep betting the Fed will remain on hold for the time being. The 10-year yield slips to 4.348% from yesterday's 4.390%. The two-year is down to 3.896% from 3.926%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
0619 ET - Palm oil prices ended lower, dragged by expectations of lower demand due to the Middle East conflict, said Phillip Capital analysts in a note. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for June delivery closed 41 ringgit lower at 4,496 ringgit a ton. Meanwhile, Malaysia's palm oil exports during the March 1-25 period are estimated up 51% on month at 1,389,549 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Wednesday. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
0602 ET - The risk of disruption from the Iran conflict to the aluminum supply chain has likely eased as smelters reroute exports, Julius Baer researcher Carsten Menke says in a note. Producers have been seeking alternative routes for refined metal exports and raw material imports. Menke estimates that 70%-80% of aluminum production can be rerouted through trucking from and to regional ports not exposed to the conflict, including in Oman, Saudi Arabia and the port of Fujairah in the U.A.E. He suggests the reduced supply risk is reflected in prices, with aluminum down about 7% from its peak. Julius Baer maintains a neutral view on aluminum but expects volatility to remain elevated due to ongoing risks of smelter or infrastructure damages. (jason.chau@wsj.com)
0503 ET - The global aluminum market is expected to face a second-quarter deficit of roughly 900,000 metric tons--the largest since 2019, analysts at Goldman Sachs say. For the full year, the U.S. bank now projects a 550,000-ton surplus, down from 800,000 tons previously. Goldman raised its LME aluminum forecast for the second quarter to $3,200 a ton, up from an earlier estimate of $3,100, citing Middle East disruptions and a smelter shutdown in Mozambique. However, new supply from Chinese overseas investments is set to ramp up in the second half of the year, contributing to a global surplus of 1.8 million tons by 2028. In early European trading, three-month aluminum is flat at $3,244.50 a ton. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0428 ET - London's mining stocks gain in opening trade on optimism that there could be a path to de-escalation in the Middle East. Oil prices are moving lower while stocks that were weighed down by inflation fears and the risk of higher interest rates are getting a boost, Hargreaves Lansdown's Matt Britzman writes. The prospect of a meeting between Washington and Tehran later this week is offering optimism that there might be a route to de-escalation. Precious metal miners Fresnillo, Hochschild Mining and Endeavour are all up over 3%. Anglo American rises 3.5%, while copper miner Antofagasta trades 3.2% higher. Glencore gains 1.55%. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0417 ET - European energy stocks fall as diplomatic efforts to end the conflict in the Middle East push oil prices lower. Brent crude falls 4.5% to $95.76 a barrel while WTI drops just over 4% to $85.96 a barrel. The U.S. has sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war while mediators are pushing for a meeting between Washington and Tehran later this week. In London, Shell drops 1.6% while BP falls 0.8% and Harbour Energy slides nearly 3.5%. Italy's Eni trades 2.6% lower while Spain's Repsol falls 1.5%. Norway's Equinor slides 2.2% and France's TotalEnergies drops 1.4%.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0405 ET - Gold prices climb as diplomatic efforts to end the Middle East war and a drop in oil prices eased concerns over inflation. New York futures gain 3.2% to $4,542.70 a troy ounce. Silver is up 5.2% to $73.18, while platinum rises 2.7% to $1,943.80 an ounce. "The recent selloff was driven largely by liquidity pressures rather than a fundamental shift," Saxo Bank analysts say. Higher oil prices have stoked inflation concerns in recent weeks, dimming hopes for near-term interest-rate cuts and lifting both bond yields and the dollar. "A partial normalization in these factors would relieve that pressure, allowing investors to refocus on gold's longer-term appeal," Saxo analysts say. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0310 ET - Comex gold futures' technical setup remains bearish, RHB Retail Research's Joseph Chai says in a research report. The commodity continues to trade below both the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages on the daily chart, the analyst notes. Also, the relative strength index is below the 50% threshold, signaling that negative momentum is still in play, Chai says. Hence, the precious metal will probably extend its correction toward support at $4,200 per ounce. On the upside, immediate resistance is pegged at $4,800 per ounce, the analyst adds. Spot gold is 1.8% higher at $4,551.40 per ounce. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0218 ET - The market reaction to U.S. President Trump's announcement on Monday made clear that investors are ready to buy the dip when the smoke clears, Navellier & Associates' Louis Navellier says in a note. On Monday, the U.S. President promised to hold off on striking Iranian energy infrastructure for a five-day period as talks continue. "The market remains volatile but we seem to have reached a correction where investors are willing to start buying the dip," he says. Perhaps after nearly a month of living with elevated energy prices, investors are ready to shop for bargains in the longer-term horizon, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
2354 ET - The long-term outlook for gold remains intact, Pictet investment manager Alejandro Bondavalli says in a research note. Gold prices have been weighed recently by a strong U.S. dollar, a repricing of monetary expectations and liquidity-driven selling pressure, the analyst notes. However, policy and geopolitical uncertainty, as well as de-dollarization, should continue to drive gold prices higher over the long term, he adds. "We view the recent pullback as an opportunity," as higher rate expectations could diminish, he says. That bodes well for gold if the Middle East conflict stabilizes. In an adverse scenario, the risk of a global recession would increase, and central banks may be forced to cut interest rates, which would benefit the noninterest-bearing precious metal, he adds. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 25, 2026 09:15 ET (13:15 GMT)
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