Why Netflix or Disney Should Hijack Fox's Roku Deal -- Barrons.com

Dow Jones06-17 21:34

By George Glover

Markets may soon have to grapple with another media M&A battle, just months after the end of the messy Warner Bros. Discovery takeover saga.

Fox said on Monday that it had agreed to buy streaming device maker Roku for $22 billion in stock and cash. But some on Wall Street think there's a chance that streaming heavyweights could try to hijack the deal.

" Disney, Netflix, or Comcast could come over the top, so long as they are willing to pay the $900 million termination fee," Wolfe Research analyst Peter Supino said in a research note this week.

Netflix stock slumped 16% this year, dragged down by worries that the company will plow more money into content to compete with streaming rivals. Disney and Comcast are down 11% and 16%, respectively, in 2026.

Roku accepted Fox's offer following a strategic review process, which Supino said means there's a "low probability of a competing bid."

There is a termination fee for both companies of $866 million if Roku accepts a superior offer or if the board changes its recommendation to shareholders.

Roku is an attractive asset because its smart TV platform distributes streaming services to more than 100 million households.

Pairing Fox's free streaming channel Tubi with the Roku TV channel could also help the combined company better compete with the likes of Amazon and Netflix in the battle to hoover up advertising dollars.

There's a strong case for Netflix to kick-start a bidding war after failing to buy Warner. Netflix declined to match rival Paramount Skydance's offer in February, netting a $2.8 billion breakup fee.

Still, Netflix is looking for ways to fend off the threat posed by YouTube TV, which has taken a bite out of its share of the streaming market in recent years.

The company is also trying to scale up its ad business, having hiked prices recently and squeezed all the money it can out of a password-sharing crackdown.

The Paramount and Fox deals "play against Netflix in a way," Matthew Condon, a director of research at Citizens JMP, told Barron's.

"There's only one Roku...There's only one Warner Bros. too," he adds. "I don't know what else they would acquire of the same sort of scale that could turn the engagement tides. Those are very unique assets."

If it doesn't try to one-up Fox, Netflix could explore other acquisitions. The company discussed a combination with Roku and is one of several media companies interested in film studio Lionsgate, Semafor reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter.

When reached for comment by Barron's, a Netflix spokesperson said it did not put in a bid for Roku and was not pursuing Lionsgate.

Comcast declined to comment.

Under the terms of the deal announced on Monday, Fox will pay $96 in cash and exchange 0.9693 of a share of Fox class A common stock for each Roku class A and class B share.

Fox and Barron's parent News Corp share common ownership.

Write to George Glover at george.glover@dowjones.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

 

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June 17, 2026 09:34 ET (13:34 GMT)

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