Genius Sports (GENI) should benefit from rising demand for its live sports data and media tools and from its Legend acquisition, while concerns around prediction market regulation appear manageable, Oppenheimer said in a note emailed Tuesday.
The NFL filed a brief to the US Supreme Court backing states' right to regulate prediction markets, but Oppenheimer said clearer rules would ultimately benefit Genius and would not affect its 2028 guidance.
Legend's integration is going well and the unit's organic revenue growth outlook of about 20% has upside from competition in prediction market advertising and Alberta's online gambling launch, the note added.
Brands and agencies are increasingly plugging Genius' live data into their advertising, and Oppenheimer estimates the media segment will grow about 30% a year through 2028.
Oppenheimer kept its outperform rating and $12 price target, adding that Q3 results should be a key catalyst for the shares, with management guiding for $100 million in H2 free cash flow.
Price: 6.63, Change: +0.02, Percent Change: +0.30
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