SMCI and DXYZ Skyrocket, Thanksgiving Rally?

On Fri, 22 Nov 2024, US market finished higher to wrap up a winning week for the major indexes. (see below)

By the time the clock chimed 4pm: (see above)

• DJIA: +0.97% (+426.16 to 44,296.51). Record high closing.

• S&P 500: +0.35% (+20.63 to 5,969.34).

• Nasdaq: +0.16% (+31.23 to 19,003.65).

For the week:

• DJIA has gained +1.99%. Best performer of the week.

• S&P 500 has gained +1.62%.

• Nadaq has gained +1.53%.

Bright Sparks of the Week ?

This week, the sector/s where US stocks was the biggest beneficiary can be found below:

• Investors gravitated towards $Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLB)$ and $Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU)$, where both closed +3.0%, higher than the others. (see above)

• Actually, $Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE)$ and $Real Estate Select Sector SPDR(XLRE)$ are a very closed 2nd.

Stocks Revisit.

For the past 2 weeks, I have mentioned a few US stocks in my picked posts.

It is timely and appropriate to revisit and do a stock take.

(1) $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$

• Wall Street heard what they wanted to hear; that was SMCI’s application to request for additional time to fulfill their financial reporting obligations.

• In addition, they managed to engage a mid-tier local audit firm BDO US (rumoured of ill repute) as their incoming auditor.

• And just like that, punters decided to throw SMCI a lifeline, buying heavily into the stock.

• Its trading volume is at an all-time high of approx. 83 million transactions daily.

• Just this week, it has gained +65.42% or $13.11, ending the week at $33.15, thanks in parts to Nvidia’s shout out during its earnings conference.

(2) $Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$.

• This fund had rallied during US election week, peaking at $42.43 on 11 Nov 2024.

• When post-election rally fizzled, so did DXYZ begin it’s descend.

• On 14 Nov 2024, it troughed at $28.68.

• On 16 Nov 2024, Reuters reported that SpaceX would launch a tender offer in December 2024. (see above)

• The good news helped DXYZ reach a new high (again) of $45.36 on 19 Nov 2024.

• However, the euphoria petered out quickly and stock price slipped.

• SpaceX followed up with a timely media blitz, with incoming president in toll. (see above)

• On Tue, 19 Nov 2024 evening, it launched the world's most powerful rocket on its 6th test flight,

• Although it did not achieve its full objectives, lessons learnt will be invaluable for its next rocket trial.

I will hold onto my token DXYZ shares and wait for SpaceX tender offer price in December 2024. US market should be playing catch up, if Reuters reported $135 per share turns out to be true.

(3) $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$.

• Nvidia was the big ‘surprise’ for me this week.

• It's quarterly earnings report on 20 Nov 2024 was highly anticipated.

• Without fail, Nvidia has handed out another stellar set of earnings for third quarter.

• On Thu, 21 Nov 2024, traders bought Nvidia.

• A day later, analysts deemed its Q4 forecast as only modestly better than Wall Street’s consensus.

• Just like that, Nvidia fell by -3.2%, closing the week at $141.95.

• Nevertheless, it has gained a modest +1.86% for the week.

Thanksgiving Rally ?

While reviewing SMCI, DXYZ and NVDA, it made me wonder if US market’s performance could be consider a “Thanksgiving” rally. (see above)

After all, next Thu, 28 Nov 2024 is Thanksgiving celebration in the US.

What I Have Done:

• Back traced the S&P 500 index last 5 years’ performance.

• Focus on the 3-month period of November to January.

What I Found:

• 30 Oct 2023 to 29 Jan 2024 - uptrend.

• 31 Oct 2022 to 30 Jan 2023 - uptrend.

• 01 Nov 2021 to 31 Jan 2022 - downtrend.

• 02 Nov 2020 to 01 Feb 2021 - uptrend

Now, is it ‘safe’ to assume that 01 Nov 2024 to 31 Jan 2025 will be in an uptrend momentum ? (see below)

Above is the S&P 500 index’s 3 months performance from 01 Sep 2024 till present.

Suffice to say that it has been maintaining an upwards trend, with pullbacks along the way.

The S&P 500 saw a strong performance in November 2024 :

• Driven by positive earnings reports from a majority of S&P 500 companies exceeding expectations and boosting investor confidence.

• Strong earnings reports from key sectors companies like Nvidia (Technology) and $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ (Retail) helped keep the upward trend going.

• Although concerns remain about potential economic headwinds, overall market sentiment remains positive.

Despite some mid-month volatility, the overall market sentiment remained positive, buoyed by optimism around the holiday season and expectations of continued economic growth.

Overall, the S&P 500's performance in November 2024 (so far) exhibits resilience of the US stock market amid a backdrop of both opportunities and challenges.

While remaining cautiously optimistic, have to remain in the market with eye wide opened and with a Plan B on hand, ready to be execute in a jiffy.

Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks.

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• NVDA : Driving SMCI and US Market Rally ?

• Do you think US market will continue to rally into January 2025 this year ?

• Do you think the S&P 500 index will reach the 6,100 level by end 2024 (+2.0% above current level) as predicted by Yardeni Research president Ed Yardeni ?

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