I am Bullish on $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ in the near term due to the Blackwell release and I take the view that Deepseek concern is overblown. 

Main factors in play:- 

1. Blackwell GPU Momentum

Nvidia’s Blackwell architecture, powering the RTX 50-series GPUs and data center solutions, is central to its growth. The RTX 5090 and 5080 are launched in January 2025, with the 5070 series following in February. Despite delays in data center deployments due to overheating and connectivity challenges, Blackwell’s AI-focused enhancements—like doubled ray-tracing performance and FP4/FP6 compute support—position it as a critical driver for AI workloads. Analysts project $120–$210 billion in Blackwell-related revenue by 2025, with data center demand offsetting short-term production hurdles.

However, major cloud providers like Microsoft and AWS have temporarily reduced Blackwell orders, opting for older H200 chips due to integration complexities. This could dampen near-term sales but aligns with Nvidia’s staggered release strategy to address cooling and packaging issues.

2. Google’s AI Investment

A Company can only really grow if there is a strong demand and reliance on its products and services. Google’s inclusion among Blackwell’s early adopters signals strong alignment with Nvidia’s AI infrastructure. While details on Google’s capital commitments are sparse, its reliance on Blackwell for generative AI and cloud services suggests sustained procurement. The TensorRT-LLM compiler and 25x efficiency gains in LLM inference could accelerate adoption, potentially offsetting initial deployment challenges.

3. Competition from Huawei and SMIC

Chinese rivals like Huawei (Ascend AI chips) and SMIC (advanced fabrication) pose risks in Nvidia’s restricted Chinese market. Key considerations:

- Export controls: U.S. sanctions limit Nvidia’s ability to sell high-end GPUs in China, creating an opening for domestic alternatives.

- Performance gaps: Huawei’s Ascend 910B trails Blackwell in FP16 performance (~80% of H100)[industry knowledge], but SMIC’s 7nm node progress could narrow margins.

- Pricing: Chinese chips are often cheaper, appealing to cost-sensitive sectors despite lower efficiency. However, US may impose high tariffs on chinese chips to level the playing field for the US and Taiwan chipmakers such as $Broadcom(AVGO)$  and $ARM Holdings Ltd(ARM)$ . 

While competition intensifies locally, Nvidia’s global AI leadership and Blackwell’s technological edge in data centers and gaming should maintain its dominance in non-restricted markets.

4. Financial Outlook

Nvidia’s stock (NVDA) recently rose 5.2% to $124.83, with a $3.06 trillion market cap[4]. Near-term catalysts include:

- Earnings report (Feb 26, 2025): Investors will scrutinize Blackwell’s early adoption rates and data center revenue.

- AI demand: Projects like Tesla’s Dojo and OpenAI’s next-gen models rely on Blackwell, supporting long-term growth.

- Supply chain risks: TSMC’s 4NP node production scalability remains critical.

My take for the next 3 months (April 25):

1. Bull case: Successful Blackwell deployments and cloud partnerships drive 5–10% stock upside, nearing its $153.13 yearly high.

2. Bear case: Persistent Blackwell integration issues and Chinese competition trigger 5–8% volatility, testing support near $120.

3. Base case: Gradual Blackwell adoption and stable data center demand result in moderate gains (3–5%), with earnings solidifying investor confidence.

@Tiger_Newspress  @TigerStars  @CaptainTiger  @AyKing  @koolgal  @Mapotofu