New Alpha | A rebound in US gig economy: ABNB/UPWK/FVRR

Tiger_Contra
02-14

πŸ’° U.S. market maintains upward trajectory, with Meta setting a new record β€” rising for 19 consecutive trading days.

πŸ’Ή $Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$ , $Upwork Inc.(UPWK)$ , and $Fiverr International Ltd.(FVRR)$ are emerging as highly attractive opportunities, offering substantial value for investors.

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| Market recap

The U.S. stock market opened strong and closed higher across all three major indices. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ continues its impressive upward streak, breaking records with 19 consecutive days of gains. Additionally,$NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index(HXC)$ rose by 1.2%, driven by $PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ and $Trip.com Group Limited(TCOM)$, each up over 2%, while $Alibaba(BABA)$ increased by 1%.

Megacaps

Investor optimism was evident as major stocks led the charge. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ and $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ dominated trading volumes, with Tesla surging nearly 6% and Nvidia climbing over 3%. However, after-hours trading revealed some divergenceβ€”Tesla continued its ascent, while Nvidia experienced a slight pullback.

Consumer Sector

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ surged, bolstered by the consumer sector's impressive strength. $Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLY)$ led industry ETFs with a 1.5% gain, driven by exceptional performance in casino stocks: $MGM Resorts International(MGM)$ surged over 17%, and $Caesars Entertainment(CZR)$ rose by more than 9%.

Year-to-date, the S&P 500 has climbed nearly 4%, with sectors such as financials, consumer discretionary, and staples contributing almost 25% to this growth. Consumer spending remains robust, fueled by strong domestic focus in the U.S. and the impact of tariffs, which have pushed the CPI higher.

AI transformation

The AI sector has evolved significantly, with specific applications gaining traction. The market has moved beyond broad AI scenarios, shifting towards more defined business models. Niche sectors within AI are thriving:

AI-Driven Advertising Platforms: $AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ surged by 700% last year and have continued their momentum with gains exceeding 45% this year.

AI in Healthcare: $Tempus AI(TEM)$ have seen their market capitalization more than double this year.

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| Gig economy

Gig economy platforms have successfully reduced operational costs and are witnessing a strong recovery in performance, leading to substantial profit growth. This year, $Uber(UBER)$’s stock has risen by 33%, while $DoorDash, Inc.(DASH)$’s stock is up by 23%.

The gig economy, initially associated with companies like Uber and Lyft, now spans various industries, encompassing a significant portion of the workforce. These jobs are typically accessed through digital platforms such as mobile apps and websites.

In the U.S., flexible employment is increasingly popular. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, approximately 11.9 million workers (7.4% of total U.S. employment) identified as independent contractors in their primary or sole job in 2024, up from 6.9% in 2017.

| The hustle continues

$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$ , $Upwork Inc.(UPWK)$ , and $Fiverr International Ltd.(FVRR)$ are gig economy platforms that significantly increase their net profits, and their valuations have become more than attractive, indicating substantial potential returns for investors.

Airbnb (ABNB)

Impressive performance: $Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$ exceeded market expectations with strong earnings and turned a profit. The company’s booking volume and user engagement are recovering, providing solid support for its stock price.

Favorable backdrop: Positive overall market sentiment, improved investor expectations for the U.S. economy, particularly in consumer and travel sectors, and accommodative Federal Reserve policies have supported higher-risk assets.

Airbnb’s surge is attributed to its stellar financial results, the broader recovery of the gig economy, and overall market improvement.

Upwork (UPWK)

A hub for the gig: $Upwork Inc.(UPWK)$ connects businesses and individuals with freelancers for a wide range of remote jobs, including software development, design, writing, marketing, and customer service.

Improving profit margins: Amid economic uncertainty, Upwork has enhanced cost management and operational efficiency to ensure profitability. In Q4 2024, the company generated $190 million in revenue, with a non-GAAP net profit of $147 million. Its AI-related business grew by 60% year-over-year.

Management expects annual improvements in profitability and free cash flow, with 2025 revenue projected between $740 million and $760 million, highlighting the company’s competitive edge in the flexible work market.

Fiverr (FVRR)

A diversified gig platform: Founded in 2010 and headquartered in Israel, $Fiverr International Ltd.(FVRR)$ connects freelancers with clients worldwide, offering over 700 different services, from programming and 3D design to digital marketing, content creation, video animation, and architecture.

On-demand customization: Fiverr emphasizes flexibility and variety, allowing freelancers to set prices based on their skills, making platform transactions more transparent and adaptable.

Fiverr is heavily investing in technology, particularly in AI and automation, to enhance user experience and service efficiency. The company is set to release its Q4 2024 and full-year financial results on next Wednesday, February 19.

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