🚨🚨Market Analysis for February 17, 2025

Global Equity Markets

1. **Asia-Pacific**:  

   - **Japan**: The Nikkei 225 rose 0.13%, supported by better-than-expected GDP growth (2.8% annualized in Q4 2024), driven by corporate investments and net exports . However, yen strength (USD/JPY at 152) limited gains for exporters .  

   - **China**: Mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite down 0.21% and the HSCEI falling 0.91%, as enthusiasm over AI developments faded amid U.S.-EU tariff tensions and Ukraine risks . The Hang Seng surged 3.7% intraday, led by tech stocks like Alibaba (+8.6%) .  

   - **Singapore**: The FSSTI Index dipped 0.1% but maintained a 2.4% YTD gain. Notable performers included Oiltek (-1% despite record profits) and Keppel DC REIT (-0.06%) .  

2. **Europe**:  

   - The DAX (+2.09%) hit a record high of 22,612.02, driven by Siemens (+7.3%) and defense stocks like Rheinmetall (+4%) on optimism around Ukraine-Russia peace talks . The FTSE 100 underperformed (-0.49%) due to weak earnings from BAT and Unilever .  

3. **US Markets**:  

   - Closed for Presidents’ Day. On Friday, the Nasdaq rose 0.4%, while the Dow (-0.37%) and Russell 2000 (-0.1%) declined. Tech resilience (e.g., NVIDIA +3.4%) offset inflation concerns .  

Forex & Central Banks

- **USD (DXY)**: Dipped 0.88% to 107.06 amid Fed rate-cut bets and softer Treasury yields (10-year at 4.53%). Bearish momentum targets 105.46 support .  

- **EUR/USD**: Rose 0.79% to 1.0465, testing resistance at 1.0500. Bearish reversal risks remain if it fails to breach 1.0784 .  

- **AUD & NZD**: Gained 0.3% and 0.26%, respectively, ahead of RBA and RBNZ meetings this week .  

- **USD/JPY**: Fell 1.05% to 152.80 as BOJ signaled potential rate hikes, though Japan’s weak industrial production (0.3% MoM) pressured the yen .  

Commodities

1. **Oil**:  

   - Brent crude edged up 0.14% to $75.24/barrel amid OPEC+ supply discipline and Middle East tensions. However, U.S. inventory builds and tariff risks cap gains .  

   - IEA forecasts 2025 demand growth at 1.1 mb/d, led by China’s petrochemical sector. Supply is set to rise by 1.6 mb/d, driven by non-OPEC+ producers .  

2. **Gold**:  

   - Rebounded 0.2% to $2,890/oz after a brief correction. Safe-haven demand persists amid geopolitical risks and central bank buying . Westpac notes gold is overvalued but expects further highs due to Trump’s unpredictable policies .  

3. **Copper**:  

   - Prices surged due to a historic dislocation between Comex and LME markets, driven by Trump’s tariff threats and a short squeeze .  

Technical Outlook

- **S&P 500 (US500)**: Bearish reversal likely near pivot 6,190.97 (127.2% Fibonacci extension). Support at 6,113.40 .  

- **DAX (DE40)**: Bearish reversal expected at 22,809.76 resistance. Support at 21,923.50 .  

- **Bitcoin (BTC/USD)**: Neutral near $96,420. Bullish breakout possible if it holds $91,855.25 support .  

Key Events & Risks

1. **Geopolitical Tensions**:  

   - Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Saudi Arabia and EU emergency meetings on security dominate sentiment .  

   - Trump’s proposed tariffs on EU autos and steel threaten global trade flows .  

2. **Central Bank Policies**:  

   - **Fed**: Markets price a 65% chance of a May rate cut. Focus on Powell’s testimony this week .  

   - **RBA & RBNZ**: Dovish signals expected amid weak growth (Australia: 0.8% YoY GDP; NZ: subdued demand) .  

3. **Commodity Volatility**:  

   - OPEC+ plans to unwind production cuts from April, while U.S. sanctions on Russia and Iran disrupt supply chains .  

Equity Highlights

- **Oiltek International**: FY2024 net profit surged 55% to RM29.6M, driven by refinery sales. Target price raised to $1.50 .  

- **SIA Engineering**: Turnaround profit of $4.7M in 3Q FY2024-25. Focus on operational resilience amid supply chain challenges .  

Conclusion: 

Markets remain sensitive to geopolitical risks, tariff uncertainties, and central bank cues. Gold and tech stocks are key hedges, while commodities face supply-demand imbalances. Monitor Fed commentary and OPEC+ supply decisions for directional clarity.  

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