$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ $GraniteShares 2x Long COIN Daily ETF(CONL)$
Revenue & Profitability:
Total Revenue: $6.6 billion (More than double YoY).
Adjusted EBITDA: $3.3 billion (Second consecutive year of profitability).
Net Income: $1.3 billion (Includes a $476 million pretax unrealized gain on crypto assets, equating to $357 million after tax).
Trading & Transaction Volume
Total Trading Volume (Q4): $439 billion, up 137% QoQ.
Consumer Trading Volume: $94 billion, up 176% QoQ.
Institutional Trading Volume: $345 billion, up 128% QoQ.
Consumer Transaction Revenue: $1.3 billion, up 179% QoQ.
Institutional Transaction Revenue: $141 million, up 156% QoQ.
Subscription & Services Revenue
Q4 Revenue: $641 million, up 15% QoQ.
Breakdown:
Stablecoin Revenue: Declined $21 million (-9%), despite USDC market cap growth.
Other Subscription & Services Revenue: Increased $33 million (+56%), driven by Coinbase One.
Coinbase One Subscribers: Exceeded 600,000 paid members by early December 2024.
Operating Expenses & Balance Sheet Strength
Total Q4 Operating Expenses: $1.2 billion, up 19% QoQ.
USD Resources (Cash & Crypto Holdings): $9.3 billion at quarter-end.
Assets on Platform: $404 billion, ~12% of total crypto market cap.
Key Growth Drivers & Strategic Priorities
Regulatory & Market Environment
Post-Election Tailwinds: The most pro-crypto U.S. Congress and President in history.
Stablecoin & Market Structure Legislation gaining momentum.
Repeal of SEC’s SAB 121: Coinbase no longer reports customer crypto assets on its balance sheet.
Product & Market Expansion
Derivatives Trading Growth:
Reached all-time highs in U.S. spot and global derivatives market share.
Goal: Expand best-in-class derivatives trading globally.
Stablecoins (USDC):
Coinbase aims to make USDC the #1 dollar stablecoin.
$30 trillion in crypto stablecoin volume in 2024, up 3x YoY.
International Expansion:
19% of Q4 revenue came from international markets.
Plans to replicate its successful market entry playbook in more high-growth regions.
Onchain Adoption (Base & CDP):
Base L2 blockchain adoption increasing as it becomes the preferred onchain development platform.
Coinbase Developer Platform (CDP) positioning itself as the "AWS of crypto".
Q1 2025 Outlook
Transaction Revenue (YTD as of Feb. 13, 2025): $750 million.
Subscription & Services Revenue Expected Range: $685M to $765M.
Expense Guidance:
Tech & G&A Expenses: $750M–$800M.
Sales & Marketing Expenses: $235M–$375M, depending on customer acquisition opportunities.
Data Points That Require Further Verification or Scrutiny
Revenue Growth Sustainability:
While Coinbase reported 137% QoQ growth in trading volume, it is heavily market-dependent.
Requires verification against industry-wide trends (e.g., competitors like Binance, Kraken).
Coinbase One Growth Projections:
Growth in paid subscribers (600K+ members) is impressive, but unclear if it is sustained engagement or short-term market-driven.
Needs longer-term retention data to verify customer stickiness.
Derivatives Trading Market Share Claims:
Coinbase claims all-time high U.S. spot and global derivatives market share, but does not disclose exact percentages.
External verification required via trading volume comparison across competitors.
USDC Market Share Ambition:
Coinbase aims to make USDC the #1 dollar stablecoin, but Tether (USDT) still dominates.
Requires market share tracking vs. competitors (USDT, DAI, PYUSD, etc.).
International Expansion Contribution to Revenue:
Currently, 19% of revenue is from international markets, but unclear how much growth is expected in 2025.
Needs more disclosure on specific country-level performance and expansion plans.
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