Well done TigerGPT in providing answer regarding my option trade #NVAX

Analysis of Your $7 Put Option on NVAX (Expiring Feb 28, 2025):

1. Current Position Snapshot

Stock Price (NVAX): $7.54 (as of Feb 25, 2025)

Strike Price: $7.0 (Put)

Days to Expiry: 3 days

Mid-Price (Premium): $0.44

Probability of Profit: 27.61% (≈27.6% chance of expiring ITM)

Implied Volatility (IV): 200.13% (extremely high, reflecting uncertainty)

Delta: -0.331 (≈33.1% chance of expiring ITM)

2. Key Observations

a. Is the $7 Put Already "Priced In"?

Current Stock Price vs. Strike: NVAX is above $7 ($7.54), meaning your put is out-of-the-money (OTM) .

Market Sentiment:

Short-term bearishness (stock down 5.63% today , near 52-week low of $3.81).

Elevated short interest (recent short volume ratio: ~12-20%).

High IV (200%) signals expectations for significant price swings.

Analyst Consensus: Mixed ratings (2 Buy, 2 Hold, 1 Underperform) with a mean target price of $17.4 , but wide dispersion ($9.0 to $25.0).

Conclusion: The market has partially priced in downside risk (evidenced by high IV and bearish technicals), but the stock’s current price above $7 suggests your put is not yet ITM.

b. Assignment Risk & Next Steps

If NVAX Closes ≥$7 on Feb 28: The put expires worthless; you keep the premium ($0.44/share).

If NVAX Closes <$7: You’ll be assigned shares at $7.0 (cost basis = $7.0 - $0.44 = $6.56/share ).

Critical Factors to Monitor:

Earnings/News: No recent earnings data provided, but biotech stocks like NVAX are sensitive to clinical trial updates or FDA decisions.

Technical Support: Nearest support at $7.96 (Feb 21), but stock has broken below this level.

Options Flow: Notable sell orders in long-dated calls (e.g., 2026 $10 calls), suggesting skepticism about near-term upside.

Recommended Action:

Scenario 1 (Avoid Assignment): Buy back the put to close the position if NVAX approaches $7.0.

Scenario 2 (Accept Assignment): Prepare to hold shares at a $6.56 cost basis (requires conviction in NVAX’s long-term prospects).

3. Disclaimer

This analysis is based on real-time data and market conditions as of Feb 25, 2025. Options trading carries significant risk, especially with high volatility and near-term expirations. Consult a financial advisor before acting.

Data Sources: NVAX Stock Quote, Options Chain Analysis (Feb 28, 2025 Expiry).

*Do note that when I bought it, the premium was $0.26 each (refer attached pic). Not as per shared by the AI above (ie. $0.44 each)