$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$
Updated SMCI 10-K Breakdown β What You Need to Know π
π Financials & Valuation :
β’ Revenue: $14.94B (+110% YoY)
β’ Net Income: $301M
β’ EPS: $0.54 (post-split) β $5.40 pre-split equivalent
β’ Guidance: FY2025 revenue projected at $26B-$30B π€―
β’ Margins: Q4 compressed (11.2% vs 17% YoY), but AI demand is fueling growth
π Stock was at $122 before fake fraud accusations.
β’ At $46, the trailing PE = 85x (because of growth reinvestment).
β’ Forward PE (assuming 100% EPS growth) is ~42x.
β’ With a fair 30-40x AI infrastructure multiple, SMCI should trade at $150-$200.
β 10-K is Filed. No More Bear Case.
β’ No fraud, no restatements, just a delayed filing.
β’ Internal review found governance issues (fixing with new CFO), but NO financial manipulation.
β’ Lawsuits still pending but not material to operations.
π’ AI Market & Demand is EXPLODING
β’ Supermicro is the backbone of AI infrastructure.
β’ New manufacturing expansion in Silicon Valley & Malaysia to meet demand.
β’ AI spending is accelerating, and SMCI is already positioned to capture it.
π₯ The Short Squeeze in Play
β’ Stock split (10-for-1) β More liquidity but SHORTS STILL TRAPPED
β’ Reported short interest = 100M, but real number w/ FTDs could be 500M+
β’ With a 175M effective float and 174M shares lent out, this is a powder keg.
β’ The only thing holding this down was the 10-K uncertaintyβitβs gone now.
π Target Price
β’ At a conservative 30x PE on FY2025 earnings β SMCI = $150+ short term.
β’ Fair value based on earnings growth: $250-$300 in 12 months.
β’ Short-term price target: Reclaiming $122+ ASAP.
β’ If AI spending continues this aggressively, this will be the NVDA of AI infrastructure.
$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ just wiped out the bear case. This was never a fraudβitβs an AI rocket ship that got caught in a short attack. The squeeze hasnβt even started yet.
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