Analysis of Nvax sell put $7 (28 Feb expiry) on TigerGPT - super duper useful

Analysis of NVAX Stock Pricing as of Feb 28, 2025 (Asia/Singapore)

1. Key Metrics & Market Sentiment

Current Stock Price: $7.765 (as of Feb 28, 2025), above the $7 put strike .

Options Data:-

$7 Put:

Probability of Profit: 11.03%

Implied Volatility (IV) : 120.72% (extremely high, signaling expectations of volatility).

Open Interest: 1,378 contracts (moderate speculative interest).

Call/Put Ratio : 2.25 (bullish bias in options activity).

Short Interest: Elevated short volume ratios (e.g., 21.32% on Feb 25), indicating lingering bearish sentiment.

Analyst Sentiment: Mixed (2 Buy, 2 Hold, 1 Underperform; target price range: $9–$25).

2. Recent Developments

Q4 2024 Results:

Revenue: $88M (beat consensus of $84M) but down 69% YoY.

Loss per Share: -$0.51 (narrower than expected).

Strategic Shift: Transitioning to partnerships (e.g., Sanofi) and cost-cutting ($80M savings from facility sale).

Capital Flows: Net inflows ($639K) on Feb 26 after outflows earlier in the week, reflecting volatility.

3. Is the $7 Put “Priced In”?

Current Price vs. Strike : NVAX is trading above $7 ($7.765), making the put out-of-the-money .

Market Expectations:

High IV suggests traders anticipate significant price swings, but the stock has stabilized post-earnings.

News about strategic partnerships and cost reductions appears partially priced in (stock rose 5% post-earnings).

Key Risk: If NVAX closes <$7 today, assignment occurs. However, the stock would need a ~10% intraday drop to breach $7.

4. Near-Term Outlook

Catalysts: Management's execution on partnerships and pipeline updates (e.g., flu/COVID combo vaccine).

Technical Levels:-

Support: $7.27 (Feb 26 low).

Resistance: $8.53 (Feb 26 high).

Conclusion

The $7 put is likely priced to expire worthless given current levels, but monitor the closing price for final confirmation. High IV and mixed sentiment suggest lingering uncertainty, but the strategic pivot and cost discipline provide a floor for the stock.

Disclaimer: Options trading involves significant risk, especially with near-term expirations. This analysis is based on real-time data as of Feb 28, 2025. Verify updates before acting.