The US stock market concerns Me at the moment. So much so, that i am seriously considering pulling all of my assets out, why?
Two answers: donald trump and elon musk. Im not going to focus on politics here and berate either of them, ill just focus on policy and outcomes.
Lets deal with Elon first. Cause the solution is simple. Elon seems to be taking a Space-X approach to the US government... blow it up, find out what we did wrong then blow it up again, rinse and repeat. We are dealing with people and their livelihood here, not just a few more billion thrown at a product To make it work. The Elon approach is just not workable dealing with government. so just fire elon, and admit it wasn't a good idea.
Trump is more problematic. My perspective on trumps first term was that everyone just said yes donald, but ignored him and stayed the course. This time its different. Trump has single handedly put US international relations back 90 years to pre WW2 status, in the space of one month. lets not dwell on ukranian diplomatic... There is not a word in the English language to describe what happened in the oval office last week. Deplorable is the best i can get too.
Lets just focus on tariffs. Im sorry Donald but tariff's don't punish foreigners supplying the US with goods. American importers pay the tax, not foreign nations. And they pass those costs onto American consumers. Lets just take one example. Canada supplies pretty much all of Americas LNG. That gas keeps American power stations running. Donald, you just made power more expensive for all American companies and consumers. This snowballs when you look at everything else the USA imports. And the reciprocal tariffs from foreign nations just mean other countries will just look to buy products that are not made in the USA. Sometimes Being bigger isnt better.
Is america to big to fall, probably. But will the average American suffer, definitely. Im not going to pull all my money out of the USA yet, but i am definitely reviewing my entire portfolio at the moment, looking at stocks that are resilient and those that are not. The macros clearly suggest 2025 will be a bumpy ride.
Comments
1. Using it as a leverage.
2. Encourage local produce.
A powerful nation with a trillion dollars market can harness the full power of it. For example, if Australia is exporting iron to China, and China puts 30% tariffs on it, that will reduce our exports. Then it will reduce our export revenue. Ultimately hurting the Australian companies, jobs and the economy. Yes, it will increase the cost on Chinese consumers as well. But they will look for alternative countries to meet their demand. Typically, tariffs impact more on the exporting party given that particular export represents a significant portion of the thst country’s economy. Ultimately, the importing country can use it as a leverage to achieve another objective.
Tariffs can also be used to boost the local production longterm too.
An amusing aside… avocados! In New Zealand avocados used to be expensive, like $4-$6 bucks each and that was because we could sell them to Australians for that price. Now I would not pay more than $1, actually I can just go up the road and pick as many as I want for nothing, because they aren’t being picked.
Why? Because we sold Aussies the plants, so you grow your own. It’s all just facked!