I took a gamble!

Yes, I took a little bet during the week, despite Monday’s drop and wild week. No, it is not what most people think, not the “buy-the-drop”or “be greedy when there is blood on the street” stuffs. I am just not that sort. Not especially if some of those blood is mine!

No, I did not buy in a big way… at least not into the big 7. I did not even buy the VIX, the fear index or short Nasdaq. Nothing of those sorts… that is just not me. Still, I took a gamble… a different manner as I see fit.

A big reason for this week’s volatility is with Donald Trump and his tariffs war, and its resulted uncertainty. The so-called tariffs is but an import tax imposed on the Americans.

Actually, the correction started way before this week. Last year’s market boom was characterised by the riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies, led by bitcoin, which had brought along MicroStrategy (renamed as Strategy), AI related, anything remotely called Quantum, and last but definitely not the least, the so-called magnificent 7. The beginning of the correction started with the correction of this so-called magnificent 7 and started with the introduction to the world a startup and its DeepSeek AI tool in January this year. Suddenly, Chinese stocks started climbing and everything associated with AI seems overpriced… and rightfully so. The hip has just gone on from far too long.

It might appear a long introduction, but the above is necessary to understand what I did and a hint of why I did what I did.

For a few weeks now, I have started trimming some of my HK listed China holdings. The focus is to weed the old weakness and let the winners run. That's first thing I did since the China run took root. 

I have placed two examples below (trades were not shown as they were performed outside 🐯 account). These are my 1st gamble. From the charts, I decided that $ASCLETIS-B(01672)$ is breaking a 52 weeks high and have decided that despite the possible trade wars to let it run... however I have decided to take a loss on$WUXI BIO(02269)$  given the possible degradation of relationships between China and US. Wuxi Bio needs the big US market to do well. As the stock price was undergoing correction (see vertical line below), I have decided to cut loss. After a couple of weeks, I have been proven right and wrong at the same time.    As you can also see below, Wuxi Bio has rebounded and threatening to make new highs. Ascletis on the other hand has indeed gone on to new heights... in fact broke another new high this week during turbulent time no less.

Besides the China holdings, for the past two weeks, I have also been trimming other weak holdings to accumulate as much cash as possible. These trimmings had been focused on both US and Australian holdings, given the uncertainty and risk off scenario exemplified by the magnificent 7 sell-off (minus of course my favourite 🍎). That's gamble 2.

Why is this a gamble? I like defence companies. In uncertain times, physical wars outbreaks are possible. However, I am also acutely aware of Donald Trump and Elon Musk's agenda of cutting cost. Cutting Ukraine🇺🇦 is merely an excuse. Wars are expensive and Donald Trump doesn't want to fund them. What's the point of cutting public services when the money is being channeling out overseas. Therefore, defence budget is expected to cut. What I did was again selective trimming, letting those winners run and cutting off the losers in the defence sectors. I like them all but like Trump, I can't afford to fund all of them. Simple fact, I need cash in uncertain times... I won't go into details here. More post to follow next time.

Finally, I made some strange manoeuvres. First, I cut some $ProShares Ultra Silver(AGQ)$ in February when I saw silver price breaking down (see below). 

Fast forward nearly a month later, last 2 weeks to be exact, I realise that I was wrong in my initial assessment. While the correction in both gold and silver are still on-going, I sense some return in strength and have decided to take new positions in some silver miners $Sun Silver Ltd(SS1.AU)$ instead. The money has obviously come from my earlier cuts in defence companies. This is the 3rd bet. The chaos of the oft on oft off tariffs game is too much, therefore I have repositioned myself in the precious metal sector as an insurance.

Last bet. Not doing more for my other positions after I have completed trimming my weak positions. This is the most important gamble of all. It is not that I trust Donald Trump or Elon Musk. I still believe they will continue to haunt the markets with their gambits. Rather, I trust my own instincts and logic. This market is too easy... not really saying what you might think I mean. It's not... what I meant was this so-called correction or 🐻 comes when everyone has been calling them. I read news articles all about them. This is not what 🐻 is all about. 🐻s are quiet animals. They move silently, watching their preys, mauling their preys before anyone knows what is upon them. Yes, that's 🐻 market for you. I have been through too many of them. Why, you might ask! When people are afraid, they pull money💰 out. Lots of 💰 are on the sidelines. With so much on the side, people would return to push the market further north. Before you know it, a new high would be in place. It is only when more and more people are on risk-on mode, believing that a greater fool will come along to scoop up after them. This gives them confidence to always enter the market whenever there are corrections. That is when 🐻 comes. Silently but surely. That's when you get all the dead 🐈‍⬛ bouncing around... and all the blood splattering along the streets...           This is the real 🐻... but no, not yet... that is my last bet. 

Sorry to keep you waiting... @Barcode It is a relatively long post. Hopefully not a boring one. Normally I don't post on Friday night as I feel I don't get many readers on a Friday night or weekend. Will still try my luck and hopefully I will lots of views... like or otherwise I can't control. The key is still viewership. It would be great if it can trigger some ⚡️ sparks...

@TigerStars @CaptainTiger @MillionaireTiger