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04-04

Is $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$  worth to buy?


Palantir Technologies (PLTR) Investment Analysis as of April 4, 2025

Key Metrics & Recent Performance

Current Price: $83.6 (-4.40% today, 52-week range: $20.33–$125.41).

Valuation:

P/E (TTM): 440× (vs. industry avg ~23×).

Forward P/E: 156× (1-year forward).

Price/Sales (TTM): 68.4× (exceptionally high).

Analyst Sentiment:

Mean Target Price: $90.05 (+7.7% upside).

Consensus: 14 "Hold," 3 "Buy," 3 "Underperform," 1 "Sell."

Growth:

Q4 2024 Revenue Growth: +36% YoY ($828M).

EPS (TTM): $0.19.

Bullish Factors

AI & Government Contracts :

Strong momentum in U.S. government contracts (+30% YoY in Q4 2024).

Record 32 deals >$10M in 2024, driven by AI platform (AIP) adoption.

Balance Sheet Strength:

Low debt ($239M) and $2.9B annual revenue (28.8% YoY growth).

Institutional Confidence:

Top holders include Vanguard (9.44%) and BlackRock (7.34%).

Key Risks

Overvaluation Concerns:

Trades at 68× sales and 156× forward earnings , far above peers like NVIDIA (P/S: ~25×).

DCF models suggest intrinsic value as low as $3.62 (per WallStreetZen), implying ~95% downside .

Insider Selling:

Executives sold $8.1M in shares on March 31, 2025, signaling potential caution.

Volatility & Short Interest :

Recent short volume spiked to 15.76M shares (March 24).

Options data shows high implied volatility (~80–120% for near-term calls).

Technical Analysis

Support/Resistance : Immediate support at $82.6 (April 3 low); resistance at $84.5 .

Price Action: Stock has declined ~33% from its 52-week high ($125.41) amid profit-taking and sector rotation.

Strategic Recommendation

Neutral/Hold :

Pros: AI-driven growth, government contracts, and institutional backing.

Cons: Extreme valuation, insider selling, and macroeconomic risks (e.g., Fed policy, sector volatility).

Entry Point: Wait for pullback to $70–$75 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level) to reduce downside risk.

Alternatives: Consider selling covered calls (e.g., $85 strike for April 11 expiry, premium: ~$3.6) to generate income.

Disclaimer: This analysis is based on data available as of April 4, 2025. Market conditions can change rapidly. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


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Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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