Reward 500 Tiger-coinsFollowing the announcement of US tariff policies, many countries began considering retaliatory countermeasures.
With the US imposing a 10% tariff on Singapore, despite free trade agreement and a trade deficit with the US, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong has made it clear:
No Retaliatory Tariffs, Strengthening Partnerships with Like-minded Countries
He said, “The world is entering a more arbitrary, protectionist, and dangerous phase.”
What Do US tariffs Mean for Singapore Markets?
As for the short-term impact of tariffs, Singapore expects weaker global growth, which will reduce external demand for its goods and services.
Outward-facing sectors like manufacturing, wholesale trade, transport, and finance will be hit first.
While it's unclear if a recession will occur, economic growth will certainly take a significant hit. The government is reassessing its 1%–3% GDP growth forecast and may revise it downward if global conditions worsen.
Yet, Singapore has not closed the door on support. A taskforce is stepping in to help businesses and workers adapt.
Questions for Discussion
Is this the smartest move under the circumstances?
If you were the decision-maker, would you impose counter tariffs or continue playing the long game?
Would imposing retaliatory tariffs really help or hurt the economy more in the long run?
How do you think this might affect the $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ or other SGX-listed companies?
Could sectors like REITs, banks, or SG-based logistics see longer-term headwinds?
Join our topic and post directly: Is Singapore's Avoidance of Retaliatory Tariffs a Smart Move? or leave your comments to win tiger coins~
A tool to boost your purchasing power and trading ideas with CashBoost! Open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here.
Other helpful links:
💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉
How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA.
Comments
Following the announcement of US tariff policies, many countries began considering retaliatory countermeasures.
short-term impact of tariffs, Singapore expects weaker global growth, which will reduce external demand for its goods and services.
Outward-facing sectors like manufacturing, wholesale trade, transport, and finance will be hit first.
Yet, Singapore has not closed the door on support. A taskforce is stepping in to help businesses and workers adapt.
Is this the smartest move under the circumstances?
If you were the decision-maker, would you impose counter tariffs or continue playing the long game?
Would imposing retaliatory tariffs really help or hurt the economy more in the long run?
How do you think this might affect the $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ or other SGX-listed companies?
Could sectors like REITs, banks, or SG-based logistics see longer-term headwinds?
新加坡的制造业、运输、批发贸易、金融服务等对外依赖度极高，一旦全球贸易链出现阻滞，首先受伤的就是这些“外向型”板块。特别是半导体与精密工程行业，若全球企业削减开支，订单缩减是难以避免的。STI指数中权重较高的出口导向企业，如Keppel、Yangzijiang、Sembcorp等，短期波动在所难免。
不过政府反应算是快。成立特别工作组介入、协助企业转型、鼓励数字化和区域多元化发展，这种“软着陆”策略比起硬碰硬地加征反制关税，我个人认为更具现实意义。新加坡作为小型开放经济体，搞“贸易战”代价太高，不如打持久战，找新市场、拼效率，才是长期出路。
从资产配置角度来看，我会更加倾向于防守型领域，比如银行、REITs和物流资产。银行受利率与信贷质量影响较大，但当前本地银行估值不高、分红稳健，是动荡环境下的压舱石。REITs方面，若通胀温和回落、利率见顶，反而有利于估值修复，尤其是物流与工业类REITs。但零售和高端写字楼REITs可能面对外资流入放缓、消费降温等双重压力。
总结来看，美国关税短期冲击不可小觑，但新加坡政府采取的是“减震式管理”，而非硬碰硬。如果我是决策者，我也会选择先以稳为主、少对抗，毕竟灵活生存比“逞一时之勇”更重要。中长期来看，反制关税并不一定带来更大好处，反而可能引发连锁反应，得不偿失。STI未来走势，可能会更受宏观环境和本地政策弹性所影响，维持谨慎偏中性看法。