Smoothed recession probabilities are in the basement

Tiger_Chart
04-09

October 2023: US 10-yr bond yields 5% , "Strong economy, no recession."

Oct 2023: Positive Fiscal Impulse

April 2025: US 10-yr bond yield 4.37%, "bond market is crashing, recession imminent."

Apr 2025: Negative Fiscal Impulse

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$

You cannot make this up. via Bloomberg.

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Smoothed #recession probabilities are in the basement, as low as they can go. There is only a recession in sentiment currently, not the real hard data, despite Larry "fake the funk" Fink's suggestion. A recession will demand current endogeny is sustained (tariffs).

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At this pace, President Donald J. Trump will produce the WORST $S&P 500(.SPX)$ return in 1st 75 days of a presidency... in history (currently -16%).

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US Treasuries May Take Hit: Time to Go Short on TLT?
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly rose to 4.5% today, and TLT may face greater risks in the near term. China holds over $700 billion in U.S. Treasuries, and in an extreme scenario, if it decides to retaliate against the U.S. by dumping bonds on the market, short-term yields could come under significant upward pressure. While the Fed could step in and print money to buy, the room for yields to fall may be limited before this risk is fully priced in. Are you still holding U.S. Treasuries? What’s your trading strategy?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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