Smoothed recession probabilities are in the basement

Tiger_Chart
04-09

October 2023: US 10-yr bond yields 5% , "Strong economy, no recession."

Oct 2023: Positive Fiscal Impulse

April 2025: US 10-yr bond yield 4.37%, "bond market is crashing, recession imminent."

Apr 2025: Negative Fiscal Impulse

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$

You cannot make this up. via Bloomberg.

ImageImage

Smoothed #recession probabilities are in the basement, as low as they can go. There is only a recession in sentiment currently, not the real hard data, despite Larry "fake the funk" Fink's suggestion. A recession will demand current endogeny is sustained (tariffs).

ImageImage

At this pace, President Donald J. Trump will produce the WORST $S&P 500(.SPX)$ return in 1st 75 days of a presidency... in history (currently -16%).

ImageImage

Fed Keeps Unchanged: Are 3 Rate Cut Estimates Too Optimistic?
After a two-day policy meeting, the Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that it would keep the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Is the market being too optimistic? As the broader market begins to pull back, what impact will this week’s FOMC meeting have?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap
Leave a comment
18