Let’s start with a funny story: the whale who sold 90,000 contracts of the $130 put on Wednesday ran for the exit during Thursday’s session. Currently, the open interest for $NVDA 20250411 130.0 PUT$ stands at 58 contracts.
We know this whale opened their position right before Wednesday’s close, which was at the highest price of the day. However, they closed out their position on Thursday at intraday lows.
As a result, the market makers made a huge profit yet again. Assuming the whale’s closing price was $25 per contract, this trade resulted in a loss of about $90 million for them. In other words, the market makers pocketed $90 million in profits.
I admit, I overestimated the whale’s bottom line yesterday. Turns out it wasn't a guess but something that could be tested. A slight move by the market makers was all it took for the whale to surrender. Truly, what a sight.
That said, the whale still has plenty of capital. On Thursday morning, the whale sold a significant number of June 20th expiry $130 puts — 18,900 contracts of $NVDA 202506120 130.0 PUT$ . Just from the strike price, it’s obvious who placed the order.
So, everyone, brace yourselves for a potential double dip. This new position is likely to get shaken out again.
The whale’s panicked exit can be attributed to two main reasons:
Thursday’s market pullback was quite intimidating, likely causing many speculative bulls to get shaken out.
It’s not just the stock market looking shaky — the bond and currency markets are also showing signs of trouble. The dollar index breaking below 100 suggests the market may be reassessing U.S. dollar assets, which is, to put it mildly, unsettling.
Despite all this, my outlook for Nvidia over the next few weeks remains unchanged. Key levels to watch are still $110, with the broader range being $100–120. However, April continues to carry significant risk.
From the Thursday put selling activity, we can infer that the market expects a dip to $90 in April, with a recovery to $110 after that. For now, if you’re buying the dip, keep your trades quick and avoid using leverage.
This pessimism for April suggests that the market has low expectations for the upcoming earnings season.
Looking at open interest data for the week of April 17th, there’s a chance Nvidia dips below $100.
The bearish positioning in SPY mirrors the sentiment seen in Nvidia, with the market expecting a retest of prior lows. Nvidia serves as a fine-tuned indicator of SPY trends, and it tends to hold up better during downturns.
Chinese Stocks
The directional intent in new positions is clear: for $KWEB$ and $FXI$, the target is a return to the $33–34 levels seen before the crash, while $ASHR$ is targeting the $26–27 range.
$KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$
$iShares China Large-Cap ETF(FXI)$
$X-trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares Fund(ASHR)$
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