Last Week's Recap
The US Market - A 90-day pause on new tariffs shock markets
Markets staged a powerful rally last week following President Trump’s surprise announcement of sweeping new protectionist tariffs on April 2. The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ jumped to its second-best single-day percentage gain on record on Wednesday. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ logged their strongest weekly performances since November 2023, while tech-heavy Nasdaq posted its best weekly return since November 2022.
March’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed an unexpected slowdown, with headline inflation easing to 2.4% year-over-year, down from 2.8% in February. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, fell to a four-year low of 2.8%—largely driven by a steep drop in airfares and hotel prices, pointing to softening travel demand.
Producer prices also came in weaker than anticipated. The March Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.4%, led by falling energy costs as recession concerns mount. Annual PPI rose just 2.7%, with core PPI at 3.3%, both below forecasts. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s survey showed expectations plummeting to their lowest level in 45 years.
The 10-year Treasury yield soared last week, logging its largest weekly gain since November 2021. At times over the past two years, a rise in the 10-year has become a key driver of stocks' decline, particularly when the yield rises above 4.5%. At the current moment, the massive spike and increase in rate volatility appears to be the main concern among investors.
The US Sectors & Stocks - Bank executives warn of economic headwinds
The Technology sector led the rally, driven by a widespread short squeeze and investor optimism a 90-day pause on tariffs for most countries. Nine of the week’s top 20 gainers came from tech, with semiconductor heavyweights $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ and $Broadcom(AVGO)$ surging 17.6% and 24.4%, respectively.
Banks leaders struck a more cautious tone about the economic outlook for the year. $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ CEO Jamie Dimon said clients are growing "more cautious" amid geopolitical and trade-related volatility. $Wells Fargo(WFC)$ warned of persistent uncertainty and a potentially slower economic environment in 2025. $BlackRock(BLK)$ CEO Larry Fink stated the U.S. "may already be in a recession." JPMorgan and Bank of $Bank of New York Mellon(BK)$ topped Q1 expectations, while Wells Fargo and BlackRock beat on earnings but missed revenue estimates.
$Apple(AAPL)$ climbed 5% after the Trump administration exempted smartphones and other consumer electronics from new tariffs.
$Delta Air Lines(DAL)$ slightly beat Q1 EPS expectations with a 2% gain, though revenue came in light. The airline guided lower for Q2 and withdrew its full-year outlook, citing trade-related uncertainty and stalled growth.
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ reported a 39% jump in Q1 sales, beating expectations with strong March results.
$Wal-Mart(WMT)$ pulled its Q1 profit guidance, citing tariff uncertainty, though it maintained its sales growth outlook of 3%-4% for the quarter ending in April.
Gold stocks rallied as spot prices hit fresh all-time highs. $Barrick Gold Corp(GOLD)$ rose 7%, while $Newmont Mining(NEM)$ jumped 7.9% after an upgrade to “buy” by UBS on bullish metal outlooks.
Hong Kong Market - The worst week for $HSI(HSI)$
Hong Kong's stock market experienced significant volatility amid escalating U.S.-China trade tensions. The Hang Seng Index (HSI) suffered its steepest one-day decline since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, plunging 13.2% on April 7. However, by week's end, the HSI managed to pare some losses, closing approximately 8.5% lower for the week. That was the worst weekly performance since February 9, 2018. The index has declined 15.6% from a peak on March 19, erasing HK$4.4 trillion (US$567.3 billion) of market value from its 83 members.
Mainland investors were net buyers of HK$11.7 billion worth of Hong Kong-listed shares via the Stock Connect scheme on Friday, according to stock exchange data. That brought their buying spree this week to HK$82.27 billion, even as traders braced for more US-China hostility and heightened recession risks.
Singapore Market - $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ tumbled 8%
Singapore's Straits Times Index (STI) plunged more than 8% this week, marking its steepest weekly decline in recent years as escalating global tariff tensions sparked a broad market sell-off. Despite the equity rout, the Singapore dollar gained ground against the U.S. dollar, signaling heightened risk aversion and investor caution amid market turmoil.
Financial stocks bore the brunt of the downturn, with major banks under pressure on fears that a global economic slowdown could weigh on credit demand. $DBS Group Holdings(D05.SI)$ sank 10.7%, $UOB(U11.SI)$ dropped 8.4%, and $ocbc bank(O39.SI)$ declined nearly 10% for the week — reflecting investor concerns over softening loan growth and rising macroeconomic headwinds.
Australian Market - $S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ recovered from sharp sell-off
Australia’s share market weathered a turbulent week as intensifying U.S.-China trade tensions and shifting global policy stances fueled sharp volatility. After plunging as much as 6.5% on Monday, the benchmark ASX 200 mounted a robust rebound midweek, ultimately closing just 0.3% lower — a dramatic turnaround that underscored the market's resilience amid heightened uncertainty.
Consumer confidence fell to a six-month low, reflecting mounting anxiety over the broader economic implications of the trade dispute and its potential drag on domestic growth.
In contrast to the broader market, gold stocks outshone. Miners surged as investors piled into safe-haven assets, driving strong gains across the sector and highlighting gold’s role as a hedge against geopolitical and market turbulence.
The Week Ahead
Macro Factors - Earnings on focus
US Market Insights (14–18 Apr): The Market Is Not Out of the Woods Yet by @Tiger_James Ooi
U.S. markets will close on Friday for Good Friday, but investors will be watching closely for any fresh developments on the tariff front that could sway sentiment during the shortened trading week.
March retail sales set to headline Wednesday’s calendar. Economists forecast a 1.4% rise in overall sales, up from February’s modest 0.2% gain. Stripping out autos and gas, retail sales are expected to climb 0.4%.
Wells Fargo economists, led by Jay Bryson, cautioned that big-ticket purchases may have been pulled forward into March and April as consumers look to sidestep higher prices. “After that, however, we are likely to see a weak consumer spending performance in the second half of the year,” the team wrote in a client note.
With tariff policy still in flux and the U.S. position evolving, strategists across Wall Street warn that uncertainty over trade will continue to be a dominant market driver in the weeks ahead.
Earnings:🎁Weekly Higher EPS Estimates: TSM, UNH, NFLX, ASML, ABT & More
This earnings season, with policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions rattling the outlook, guidance may carry more weight than actual results. In fact, if CEOs opt to lower forecasts, widen their guidance ranges, or pull projections altogether, it could significantly shift market sentiment. Delta Air Lines made headlines last week for not updating its full-year outlook—an unusual move that underscores the current haze. According to FactSet’s John Butters, companies have only withdrawn guidance en masse three times in the past decade: once during the COVID-19 outbreak in Q1 2020, and twice in late 2022 amid macroeconomic turmoil.
“It’s the murkiest environment you could be in outside of a pandemic,” said Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist at Charles Schwab, in an interview with Yahoo Finance. “We’re kind of entering back into that sort of environment where there’s probably going to be no guidance on the aggregate level, and companies… they can’t tell us what’s going to happen.”
Investors hoping for clarity this earnings season may instead have to navigate growing corporate caution and an increasingly opaque economic landscape.
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