$Chagee Holdings Limited(CHA)$

I’m skeptical about the hype surrounding Chagee’s IPO. While the brand looks trendy and has strong aesthetics, the premium tea market in China is overcrowded and highly competitive. Past IPOs like Nayuki showed us how quickly post-listing sentiment can fade once financial realities kick in. Chagee may have style, but whether it has sustainable profits is unclear. Store expansion is capital-intensive, and customer loyalty in this sector is weak—consumers chase trends fast. Even if revenues are growing, margins might remain thin due to high operating costs. The success of Mixue and others came from low-price mass appeal, not high-end positioning. Unless Chagee shows strong unit economics and disciplined growth, I doubt it can replicate the same surge. For now, I’ll watch from the sidelines.