On Mon, 14 Apr 2025, the S&P 500 reached an ominous-sounding milestone even as stocks largely added to their gains from last week’s rebound.
When trading ended at 4pm, the large-cap index managed to tally a “death cross” — its first since March 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
S&P 500 - 14 Apr 2025 - Death Cross !!
What is a “Death Cross” ?
A death cross occurs when the 50-day moving average (ma) of a stock or index dips below its 200-day ma.
Technical analysts interpret it as a sign that a correction could be metastasizing into a deeper downtrend.
Did You Know ?
As US stocks continue to struggle of late in 2025, a death cross has already appeared to:
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The small-cap Russell 2000 index.
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$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ , it has flashed this pattern as well.
Looking Back.
Historically, there are 3 flavours to a “death cross” scenario.
(1) Short-Term Weakness, Long-Term Recovery.
History have proven that:
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Following the appearance of “death cross”, further declines have followed.
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However, the pain is usually short-lived.
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Data shows that the S&P 500 has, on average, traded higher 3 months or 6 months and even a year later. (see below)
Statistically,
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The S&P 500 has fallen 52% of the time in the 20 days after a death cross, with an average loss of -0.5%.
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30 days after the signal, the index has risen +60% of the time, with an average gain of 0.8%.
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Over longer periods (3, 6, and 12 months), the S&P 500 has often recovered and posted gains.
(2) Further Declines Possible.
According to $Bank of America(BAC)$, Chief tech strategist, Paul Ciana,:
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Past S&P 500 death crosses have proven to be inconclusive overall.
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One critical telltale sign will be - whether the 200-day ma at close - has fallen over the past 5 trading days?
Tigers, start monitoring from today (15 Apr 2025) onwards until next Mon, 21 Apr 2025 !!
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If it has, it could signal that stocks have more room to drift lower in the immediate future.
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Meaning it could signal that S&P 500 would likely retest its 2025 low from last week.
Statistically,
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In the remaining 46% of cases, the selloff intensified.
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The S&P 500 averaged an additional -19% decline after the signal.
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Notably, severe bear markets in 1981, 2000, and 2007 followed death crosses, with subsequent drops of -21%, -45%, and -55%, respectively.
(3) Mixed Outcomes.
Countering above pessimistic outlook is Piper Sandler, Chief market technician, Craig Johnson.
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His research shows that death crosses are lagging indicators.
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Instead of promising more losses, they tend to signal that a “snapback” rally is likely in store.
According to Dow Jones data, more recent death crosses have painted a mixed picture about where the S&P 500 might be heading next.
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For the 14 Mar 2022 death cross, the S&P 500 was lower one year (post) .
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For the 30 Mar 2020 death cross, S&P 500 stocks were up by +50% over the same time frame. (see below)
S&P 500 - Mixed picture (performance)
Statistically,
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Over the past 5 decades, the S&P 500 has experienced 24 death crosses.
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54% of these cases, the worst of the decline had already occurred by the time the death cross appeared, suggesting the signal often lags the market's most severe drops.
Cash Is King !
Moving to cash is a classic defensive strategy during periods of heightened uncertainty or technical weakness.
It helps to preserve capital should a deeper bear market unfolds.
However, history shows that the death cross is not a consistent & reliable predictor of major declines.
In many cases, the market has already absorbed much of the selling pressure by the time the signal appears, and rebounds are common.
Risks of Cash.
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Investors who move 100% to cash risk missing out on potential rebounds, especially if the market stages a "V-shaped" recovery, as seen in 2018 & 2020.
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Opportunity cost of holding cash can be significant if the market stabilizes or rallies, especially given that the S&P 500 has historically been higher 3, 6, and 12months after a death cross.
What To Do Instead ?
(1) Death Cross as Caution Signal, NOT Panic Trigger.
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The death cross should just be (a) a prompt caution and (b) a review of portfolio strategy, and not immediate, wholesale offload.
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Combine (a) technical analysis, with (b) other indicators (macroeconomic data, quarterly earnings, sentiment - market & consumer) before making major allocation changes.
(2) Assess Risk Tolerance & Time Horizon
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Review one’s own risk tolerance & investment objectives.
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Those with a long-term horizon can choose to ride out volatility.
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Those with shorter timeframes or lower risk tolerance might reduce exposure to equities.
(3) Partial Hedging or Defensive Positioning
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Rather than moving 100% to cash, investors might consider using:
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(a) Hedges (eg, Put options, Inverse ETFs)
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(b) Shift to defensive sectors ( $Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLU)$ OR $Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLP)$) to manage downside risk.
Will the above be able to help recession-proof our investment in a Trump-era synonymous with volatility and instability for the next 4 year ? I know so ! Ha, ha.
Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks.
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Do you think it is true that we should not keep all our resources in “Cash” even in “bad” times ?
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Do you think Utilities and/or Consumer Staples funds are worth a consider ?
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Comments
What do you think?
When US depends on others to fund its Ops by buying its debt, shouldn't they be grateful ?
With poor "good housekeeping" - better think of tightening your belt domestically instead of trying to leech your trading partners & suck the blood out of them.
It does not work like that in the real world. There's a price to pay for temporary relief.. Foolish..
Pls "Re-post" so that more get to know. Tks! Rating is important (to me).
Consider "Follow me" and get first hand read of my Daily new posts? Thanks!). Tks!!