April 14, 2025
Tariff Tango
A Volatile Dance: Tech Exemptions, Tweets & Tariff Whiplash
Stocks closed higher for the second straight session, shaking off yet another round of confusing signals from the White House on tariffs.
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Dow Jones: +0.8%
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$S&P 500(.SPX)$ : +0.8%
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$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : +0.6%
Markets initially surged after Customs and Border Protection released guidance suggesting some tech imports (e.g., smartphones, PCs, chips) might be exempt from the harshest reciprocal tariffs. But by Sunday, President Trump publicly walked back that optimism, insisting “NOBODY is getting off the hook.”
Tech Stocks Lead, But It's a Tentative Rally
Electronics names including $Apple(AAPL)$ , $Best Buy(BBY)$ , HP, and Dell were top gainers, as traders priced in the possibility that tech products might avoid the 145% tariff imposed on most other Chinese imports.
But uncertainty looms. Trump suggested that tariffs on semiconductors and electronics will be clarified “very soon,” with “certain flexibility” for some products — though specifics remain vague.
Meanwhile, auto stocks rose after Trump floated the idea of pausing new tariffs on cars to give manufacturers time to adapt. On the other hand, the White House is also eyeing pharmaceuticals as the next target.
Luxury Under Pressure: Reciprocal Tariffs Hit the High End
Luxury stocks have been caught in the post-tariff turmoil:
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France-based brands: Hit with 20% tariffs
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UK goods: 10%
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Swiss imports: 31%
With reciprocal tariffs paused for now, there’s still hope for reprieve — but luxury demand is showing cracks, especially in Asia.
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LVMH Asia revenue: –11% YoY
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Japan sales: –1% YoY
Analysts warn that wealthy consumers, though buffered from recession, are still influenced by portfolio losses and market volatility — both of which dampen discretionary spending.
Sentiment Slipping: Confidence Hits 22-Month Low
The NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations shows the lowest 12-month stock market outlook since June 2022:
Probability of Higher Stock Prices in 12 Months: –3.2 pts to 33.8%
What’s Ahead: Earnings, Data & Policy Decisions
Tuesday Earnings Lineup:
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Banks: $Bank of America(BAC)$ , Citigroup, PNC
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Transport: J.B. Hunt
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Healthcare: Johnson & Johnson
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Media & Services: Omnicom, United Airlines
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Trading: Interactive Brokers
Key Data:
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NY Fed Survey Takeaway: Inflation expectations remain tame relative to 2022
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Treasury Watch: Real 10-year yields at 2.2% — not at crisis highs, but rising
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European Equities: Continued relative outperformance vs. US — will it last?
The Nasdaq Composite had its second-best daily return ever last week, up 12.2%. Sounds bullish? Not quite.
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This summary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.
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