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Since forming a low at 4835.04 on April 7th, the S&P 500 has rallied nearly 650 points, pushing us up toward the 5500 level. For the past four trading days, price has been consolidating inside last Wednesday’s candle range and now the big question on everyone’s mind is: Where do we go next?
I like to approach things through scenarios, so here are three potential scenarios I’m watching over the next few weeks:
Scenario 1: Bullish 📈
SPX back tests 5350 and holds. We chop in a 5350–5500 range, then break above 5500 and begin filling the gap to the upside. As we form higher lows during the gap fill, momentum builds for a run toward 5700.
Scenario 2: Bearish 📉
SPX back tests 5350, ranges between 5350–5400, then breaks down. We lose 5350 and head toward 5200. That level doesn’t hold either, and eventually we retest the April 7th low near 4800.
Scenario 3: Neutral ↕️
SPX back tests 5350 but fails to hold. We slide to 5200, which acts as strong support. Buyers step in and we bounce back toward 5500, but stall again. As tariff headlines continue to swirl, the market gets stuck ranging between 5200–5500 until further clarity emerges.
What do you think — which scenario is most likely to play out next?
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