It was roughly about a month ago that Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives warned Tesla CEO Elon Musk that patience among his shareholders was “wearing very thin”.
It now looks as if it has finally snapped, after Wall Street’s most reliable $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ bull slashed his price target nearly in half, blaming the polarizing CEO for poisoning the well.
Moving forward, Ives said, EV sales for the brand that once hit breakneck speeds will only crawl ahead with percentage gains in the single digit as a result.
“Demand destruction for Tesla and brand damage is real,” Ives wrote, “and has morphed into something much more concerning over the past few months.”
By cutting his price target to $315 from $550, the Wedbush analyst broke ranks from many Tesla bulls who largely view Musk’s politics as a wash. that is - Mr CEO is losing no more customers on the left than he is gaining from the right.
Ives disagreed with fans’ views and added that the tariffs risked spreading the problems from Europe and the US farther East, explaining he was much more worried about Musk’s association with Trump in terms of China.
Whereas his recent price target changes appeared to be driven by sentiment & conviction, Ives this time erased entire assumptions underpinning the fundamental earnings drivers.
He justified the new $315 target with (a) a steep downward revision of his estimates for Tesla vehicle deliveries for 2025 all the way through to 2030, (b) reducing them by an average of more than a fifth (or -20%).
EV Delivery estimates revision.
Ives predicts :
-
Tesla’s EV sales should increase at an annual pace of roughly +8% from next year onward—down from a previous rate of approximately 15%.
-
Tesla has lost/destroyed at least 10% of its future customer base globally based on self-created brand issues and this could be a conservative estimate.
-
In Europe, this number could be 20% or higher…all self-inflicted by Mr CEO.
Translated into numbers:
-
Tesla will deliver just 1.70 million EVs in 2025, that is a -5% annual drop over 2024.
-
It will rise to 2.47 million at the end of 2030.
In contrast, Ives’s previous estimates were at 2.19 million (2025) and 4.54 million (2030), respectively, just 5 months ago.
Previously Ives had calmed investors by arguing Musk’s influence with Trump would likely grant him a hefty say in the China tariffs the president was planning.
These hopes were dashed last week following news that import duties on China would skyrocket to 54% from a previous 20%, starting 9 Apr 2025. In return, China slapped a reciprocal tariff of 34% to match the administration’s move, setting up a trade war between the world’s two superpowers.
Ives now fears that Chinese buyers, who previously cared little whether Musk was pushing authoritarianism in the West, could turn their backs on the Tesla CEO because of his close relationship with the US President.
Backlash from Trump tariff policies in China and Musk’s association will be hard to [overstate] and this will further drive Chinese consumers to buy domestic, such as $BYD Co., Ltd.(BYDDY)$, $NIO Inc.(NIO)$, $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ and others,” Ives wrote.
Triple erroneous hikes !
Looking back, the Wedbush fanboy-analyst had picked the worst possible time to be bullish about Tesla.
Bad timing #1.
-
In mid-December 2024, Ives hiked his price target to $515, 3 days before the stock peaked at its record price of $488 a share.
Bad timing #2.
-
He then doubled down on his optimism, hiking once more to $550 - 2 days after Trump took office in late January 2025.
-
By that point the stock’s steady declines over the previous 4 weeks were about to turn into a rout, as Musk’s DOGE efforts sparked outrage across the country.
Bad timing #3.
-
Finally, after Tesla shares fell another -37% hitting $263 per share, Ives felt investors needed a “table pounder” like Wedbush to remind them of the value they were missing out on and added the stock to its Best Ideas List.
In total Ives had hiked his price target three times since the election from just $300 in early November 2024.
What is actually happening on the ground is mixture of Tesla’s Q1 2025 car sales, its lowest in nearly 3 years and tariffs’ uncertainty has continued to press down the stock price.
Ives’s parting comment - “Tesla has unfortunately become a political symbol because of Mr CEO.
This is a very bad thing for the future of this technology stalwart”.
Bargain Vulture - Cathie Wood.
In contrast, another Messiah of Telsa, ARK funds manager Cathie Wood decided to do the opposite of Wedbush Dan Ives.
The Tesla-bargain vulture has just double down on her favourite pump & dump stock. (see below)
In an interview with Barron’s, Wood enumerated a few reasons ARK Invest sees a bright future (?) for Tesla.
Her “Buy” justifications.
(1) Cheaper EV model:
-
Tesla will launch a cheaper EV, starting at around $30,000k that is half the price of a typical Model Y.
-
This she said, will help bring affordability back into auto buying,
-
Tesla’s cheap $30,000 EV model is expected to launch in Q2 2025.
(2) Robotaxi.
-
Tesla’s upcoming robotaxi service, will help consumers save upfront costs (she predicts).
-
Ms CEO argues that Tesla’s robotaxi service would be cheaper than Uber and Lyft because it would save costs without a human driver.
Her parting comments - news cycles pass quickly nowadays, and the best cars are going to win.
My viewpoints : (mine only)
It is a known that Dan Ives has been a Tesla fanboy and is overall bias towards Tesla and its CEO.
It is a “surprise” that Ives is losing faith at the man he has placed on a pedestal and worship.
His revised target price of $315 from $550 is a -42.72% discount off its peak.
If the $550 price tag is replaced by Tesla’s 17 Dec 2024, actual peak of $479.86 per share and a -42.72% discount is applied against it, the “actual” revised target price should be $274.86.
Looking at Tesla’s 18 Apr 2025 closing price ($241.38), the car maker has fallen below Ives’s prediction. (see below)
Looks like the situation is more dire than what Dan Ives has predicted.
As for bargains-vulture Cathie Wood, it has been a while since she bought Tesla shares. (see below)
ARK funds movement on Tesla shares
Instead, she’s been hard at working selling Tesla, from July 2024 into April 2025.
With the latest purchases, it will not be too long before:
-
She starts her preaching on the ‘virtues’ of owning Tesla’s shares.
-
Forecast overtly optimistic (& impossible) price target.
In her interview with Barrons’, she failed to :
-
Notice her 2 justifications - (i) budget EV and (ii) robotaxi have been factored into Tesla’s pricing long ago.
-
Acknowledge negative vibes surrounding Telsa, the EV maker and Tesla the owner, Mr Musk.
It is negative sentiments that have (a) translated into boycott of Tesla in all sense of the word and (b) affected Tesla’s stock price. Need to warn Ms Wood ? Nah ! She ‘ knows’ what she’s doing.
Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks.
-
Do you think Tesla has bottomed or there’s still more room for fall ?
-
Do you think US will slip into recession and affects US stock market in the process ?
If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ?
Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you.
Comments
Pls "Re-post" so that more get to know. Tks! Rating is important (to me).
Consider "Follow me" and get first hand read of my Daily new posts? Thanks!). Tks!!
Great article, would you like to share it?