$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ is scheduled to announce its Q1 2025 financial results after the market closes on Tuesday, 22 April 2025.
The consensus estimates hover around $21.81 billion to $21.85 billion. This would be a slight increase (approx. 2.6%) compared to Q1 2024 but a noticeable drop from Q4 2024's $27.2 billion. Some individual analyst forecasts are slightly different (e.g., Mizuho at $20.53 billion).
For the earnings per share (EPS), the consensus estimates range roughly from $0.36 to $0.44 per share. This is projected to be flat or slightly changed compared to $0.35 in Q1 2024, but significantly lower than $0.74 in Q4 2024. Many analysts have recently lowered their EPS estimates for the quarter.
Some Q1 2025 Preliminary Data Released Suggest Mixed Performance Across Segment
Vehicle Production: Tesla produced 362,615 vehicles, a decrease of 16% year-over-year (YoY).
Vehicle Deliveries: Delivered 336,681 vehicles (323,800 Model 3/Y and 12,881 other models). This was a 13% decrease YoY and represented the weakest delivery quarter in roughly three years, falling short of analyst expectations. Tesla cited factory retooling for the updated Model Y as a factor.
Model Y was the best-selling vehicle of any kind globally in 2024.
Energy Storage: Deployed 10.4 GWh of energy storage products, marking a significant 156% increase YoY.
Tesla (TSLA) Last Neutral Earnings Call Saw Significant Decline Of 37.92% In Its Share Price
Tesla provided a neutral earnings call on 29 Jan 2025 which saw a significant decline of 37.92% in its share price since.
The earnings call presented a mix of strong performance in vehicle deliveries and energy storage deployment, alongside challenges in margins and production due to new model transitions and regulatory uncertainties. The advancements in Full Self Driving and energy storage indicate significant growth potential, but these are tempered by short-term production and regulatory hurdles.
Tesla (TSLA) Guidance On Energy Storage
In the Tesla Fourth Quarter 2024 earnings call, CEO Elon Musk highlighted significant achievements and ambitious future goals. Tesla delivered vehicles at an annualized rate of nearly 2 million, with the Model Y being the best-selling vehicle globally. Musk emphasized the exponential focus on autonomy, projecting Tesla's potential to become the world's most valuable company. The company is set to launch unsupervised Full Self Driving (FSD) as a paid service in Austin by June 2025, and Musk foresees the capability expanding nationwide by the end of the year. Tesla's Q4 Vehicle Safety Report showed significant year-over-year safety improvements with FSD, and the company continues to invest heavily in AI infrastructure, including a new Cortex training cluster at Gigafactory Austin. Musk projected that Optimus humanoid robots could generate over $10 trillion in revenue long-term, with plans to build several thousand units in 2025.
Tesla also set records in energy storage deployments and vehicle deliveries, despite a challenging macro environment, and plans to introduce several new models, including a more affordable vehicle, in 2025.
Key Areas of Focus for the Upcoming Tesla Q1 2025 Report
Automotive Gross Margins: Investors will be closely watching Tesla's automotive gross margins due to recent price cuts, increased competition, and the costs associated with production changes. Estimates suggest margins might decline compared to the previous year.
In previous Q4 2024 quarter, Tesla delivered vehicles at an annualized rate of nearly 2 million a year, setting a new record for production and deliveries.
Quarter-over-quarter decline in automotive margin due to lower ASPs and FSD-related revenue recognition.
Energy Segment Performance: The rapid growth in the energy storage business is a potential positive offset to challenges in the automotive sector. Revenue from this segment is expected to show strong YoY growth (estimates range from +70% to +90%).
In the previous quarter, energy storage deployments reached an all-time high in Q4 with a new record for deliveries in the Greater China market.
Cost Management: Progress on reducing the cost of goods sold (COGS) per vehicle will be important for profitability. In Q4 2024, Telsa had the overall cost per car was reduced to below $35,000, primarily through material cost reductions.
Tesla generated free cash flow of $3.6 billion for 2024 despite increased CapEx.
Future Guidance: Outlook for future delivery numbers, production ramp-up, demand trends, and updates on projects like the Cybertruck, Semi, and Full Self-Driving (FSD) will be critical.
Tesla will need to upgrade Hardware 3 vehicles for those who have purchased Full Self Driving, posing potential CapEx challenges.
Regulatory approval and technological breakthroughs could unlock high-margin recurring revenue. Slow adoption or safety concerns might limit upside.
Market Conditions: Commentary on navigating slowing EV demand globally and increasing competition will be noted. Tesla's second factory is operational in Shanghai, and a third factory is under construction to ramp up stationary battery storage production.
Introduction of the new Model Y across all factories will result in several weeks of lost production, impacting margins due to idle capacity.
Regulatory and Tariff Concerns: Uncertainty around tariffs and reliance on a global supply chain may impact business and profitability.
Tesla (TSLA) Price Target
Based on 39 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Tesla in the last 3 months. The average price target is $298.38 with a high forecast of $465.00 and a low forecast of $120.00. The average price target represents a 23.62% change from the last price of $241.37.
I think investors should consider these factors when looking at Tesla price target :
-
Management Guidance: Updates on battery tech, AI/FSD timelines, and capital allocation (e.g., new factories, buybacks).
-
Valuation Metrics: P/E ratio relative to growth, PEG ratio, and free cash flow sustainability.
-
Sustainability Goals: Progress toward Tesla’s 2030 targets (20M vehicles/year) and grid storage ambitions.
As of now, I think Tesla need to really clear the tariffs impact from one its largest market, China, if other regions sales could at least equal the demand from the Chinese market, then market confidence might come back.
Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
Tesla had been giving a wide movement of like 9% post earnings, so I would not be surprised if we saw a close to 10% by next week.
But we need to understand that the bears are in full control now as we saw a weekly downtrend, though the bulls are defending the 220 down to 200 range of support, but it looks trapped.
The above resistance is between 260 and 300 which shows that we are trapped with no clearly defined price action.
I think this might be maintained this week into earnings so it is not easy for us to predict what would happened into earnings, maybe we can do some sell puts below the market price.
Summary
Tesla’s Q1 2025 earnings would hinge on execution of its growth playbook and external factors.
While official results are pending, preliminary data and analyst forecasts suggest Tesla's Q1 2025 report will reflect challenges in vehicle deliveries and potential pressure on automotive margins, counterbalanced partly by strong growth in its energy business. The company's outlook and commentary on navigating the current market will be key points of interest.
Long-term optimism around innovation and EV adoption remains, but near-term volatility from competition and macro risks could sway results.
Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Tesla could show resilience for potential growth even with the tariffs risks from the Chinese market.
@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.
Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.
Comments
Interesting article