Cool Cat Winston
04-20
//@Hen Solo:

Great article, would you like to share it?

@Barcode：$E-mini S&P 500 - main 2506(ESmain)$ 🚀⚡📈 $ES Cup & Handle Battles the Tariff Tempest: Will Volume Ignite a 475pt Breakout? 📈⚡🚀 The S&P 500 futures ($ES) are sculpting a near-perfect Cup & Handle on the daily chart, but this isn’t playing out in a vacuum. With tariff tremors rattling global markets, I’m watching this setup like a hawk. The structure is textbook, but volume and macro headwinds are casting a long shadow. See the chart below for the C&H formation I’m tracking, note the symmetry of the cup and the current handle resistance at 5,335. 📉 My Chart Deep Dive: Technical Anatomy of the Pattern • The Cup (A to B): The base formed at 4,918 in early April. A 417-point rally to 5,335 mid-month confirms strong accumulation and a rounded bottom, classic bullish structure. • The Handle (B to C): Post-peak pullback to 5,282 forms a tight handle. We’re currently sitting at 5,326.50, just below resistance. A breakout looms, but market hesitation is clear. • The Neckline: A close above 5,385 with strong volume triggers the measured move to 5,802, a potential +475pt rally. But confirmation is everything in this volatility. 📊 My Key Levels in Focus Resistance Zones: 5,335 (current battle zone), 5,361 (intermediate), and 5,385 (breakout neckline) Support Zones: 5,307 (handle low), 5,282 (pivot support), and 4,871.75 (invalidation level) 🧭 Volume Is My Compass Breakouts in high-volatility regimes demand volume confirmation. I’m watching for a spike above the 20-day average volume. Without it, this setup could turn into a trap for aggressive bulls. In this market, conviction without confirmation is capital suicide. 💸 Macro Disruptions: Tariff Wars and Momentum Erosion • Big Tech Drag: Apple, Meta, and Amazon dropped 13–16% in 2 days after Trump’s 2Apr25 tariff blitz, erasing over $1 trillion in market cap. Risk-off sentiment is throttling momentum. • Options Flow: Still some bullish open interest between 5,350–5,400, but the conviction is fading. Institutions are rattled by Trump’s 54% China tariffs and looming 20% EU tech duties. • Market Shockwaves: On 3Apr25, $SPX dropped 4.84%, its worst day since Jun20. The Nasdaq fell nearly 6%, and the VIX spiked above 40, a fear regime not seen since early pandemic volatility. 🧠 Historical Insight: Will This Pattern Withstand Macro Stress? William O’Neil’s Cup & Handle has a 70%+ success rate, in normal conditions. But in 1890, the McKinley Tariff collapsed equity markets through retaliation and price distortion. I see echoes now. With Trump’s 25% average tariffs, China retaliating with 34%, and the EU targeting US tech, this isn’t just noise, it’s structural. When VIX is above 40, pattern reliability falls to ~50–55%. That means traders must scale into risk with surgical precision. This isn’t a time for full-size entries or emotional conviction. 🧠 Contrarian Insight If everyone’s watching 5,385, is the real breakout just below it, or a fakeout just above to clear stops? That’s the level of mental chess we need to play in this market. 📈 My Trading Blueprint 1. Entry Plan: Daily close above 5,385 with volume. If missed, I’ll buy the pullback to 5,335 if it holds as new support. 2. Profit Zones: Scale out at 5,500, 5,650, with final target 5,802. I’ve trimmed expectations due to macro drag, but this still offers high R:R. 3. Stops: Below 5,307 for tight risk, or 5,282 if I need more flexibility. Below 4,871.75, I flip bearish. 4. Bearish Reversal Trigger: If tech tariffs return (e.g., semiconductors next week), I’m ready to short. Commerce Secretary Lutnick’s recent hints are no bluff. 🧠 Why I’m Sharing This This isn’t a “chart and chill” moment. I’ve built this roadmap by blending technical precision, macro shockwaves, and trader psychology. In a choppy tape, we need alpha strategy, not hope. 📢 Don’t miss out! Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets 🚀📈 I’m obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Let’s outsmart the market and stack those gains together! 🍀🍀🍀 Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀 @TigerWire @TigerPicks @TigerStars @Tiger_comments
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap
Leave a comment
1