Cool Cat Winston
04-21

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@Barcode：$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Costco(COST)$ 📉 🪤🔥Nvidia’s $60M Put Wall: Crash Signal or Genius Trap? 🔥🪤 $NVDA lit up the options tape on Thursday with a $60M bomb in short-dated, single-leg ask-side puts, stacked sky-high. Is this a crash signal, or the ultimate trap? At $101.27 post-market, Nvidia’s on a knife-edge, while tech traders hold their breath. This isn’t noise, it’s a screaming alert from the institutional playbook. 📉 Puts Are Piling Up, Big Money’s Betting on Pain 📉 Puts: $59.75M, towering bearish bets Calls: $5.31M, barely a murmur Not a tilt, it’s a full-on “brace for impact” signal. 🔑 Key Levels to Watch, Break These and It’s Game Over 🔴 $96.00 is the last stand, cracks here open the door to $92 🟠 $98.00 marks the liquidity shelf, where big players tend to lurk 🟡 $99.60 is the first test, watch it like a hawk Slip below $99.60 and it’s a slide. If $96 folds, it’s freefall. 🧠 From King to Cautionary Tale Top 10% of megacaps to bottom 10%, Nvidia’s a champ hitting the mat, hard. 📉 Indicators Flashing Red 🚨 RSI(6): 61.84 → cooling fast MACD: Bearish flip, momentum’s bleeding MA5 ($117.83) vs MA10 ($84.26): Pressure cooker ready to blow 🧭🇨🇳 China: Long Game, Short-Term Pain Huang’s China talks protect $5.5B amid U.S. chip curbs, a bold play, but markets price risk now. 🥩🛍️🛒 Costco vs Nvidia: Valuation Smackdown $NVDA: P/E 23x, +37% growth, growth rocket $COST: P/E 53x, +9% growth, pricey grocery cart 🌭 Hotdogs over AI chips? Mispricing screams correction. 🧬 Chart Pack Goldmine attached Put-Call Chaos: Puts dwarf calls Valuation WTF: Nvidia vs Costco Tech Breakdown: RSI, MACD souring Key Zones: $106.17, $105.06, $99.62 Order Flow: Puts like a fortress wall ❓ Panic or Power Play? $60M put wall, overreaction or tech meltdown’s first domino? To capitalise on a potential downtrend in $NVDA, I’m eyeing the GraniteShares 2x Short NVDA Daily ETF ($NVD). This ETF gives me leveraged exposure to the stock’s downside, aiming for -2x the daily percentage move. In other words, if $NVDA drops 1%, $NVD is designed to pop roughly 2% (before fees). Given the recent setup, including the $60M short-dated put wall, collapsing technicals, and geopolitical headwinds, this is my tactical pick. Here’s why I’m using $NVD over other inverse plays: 1. Direct Leverage on NVDA’s Decline $NVD offers clean, amplified exposure to NVDA’s downside. With NVDA already down 26% from its highs and $266B shaved off its market cap due to U.S. chip restrictions and valuation resets, $NVD sharpens the short without needing margin. 2. Macro & Market Alignment 2025 is hitting NVDA on multiple fronts: • China risk: $5.5B in sales are at stake from export curbs. CEO Jensen Huang’s recent diplomacy signals urgency, but the market’s already pricing risk. • Valuation reset: Despite a forward P/E of 23x (far below $COST at 53x), NVDA trades 423% above its historical average. Citi just cut their target to $150. • Technical fragility: As of 17Apr25, NVDA’s at $101.49, sitting above critical Fibonacci supports at $99.60 and $96.00. Momentum is fading fast, with RSI cooling at 61.84 and MACD turning bearish. 3. Surgical Precision for Short-Term Plays $NVD is perfect for short-term swings. It resets daily, so I can trade around catalysts like earnings on 28Aug25 or tariff headlines. Unlike sector-wide ETFs, it’s laser-focused, no AMD or TSMC dilution muddying the waters. 4. Simpler Execution, Cleaner Risk Trading $NVD through my regular account avoids short-selling complexity. No margin, no collateral, my max risk is what I put in. That’s key when volatility runs hot, like the current 13.99% monthly drop and 7.20% weekly decline. Why I’m Not Using Other ETFs • $NVDD only gives -1x exposure, less juice, less reward • Sector ETFs like $SSG short the whole chip space, but other names (e.g. $TSMC) are holding up and can offset NVDA’s move • $NVDY focuses on income via covered calls. That caps upside and doesn’t track NVDA’s fall, it’s not a bearish tool The Risks I’m Managing • Leverage decay: Holding too long in a choppy range can eat returns. I use it for targeted trades • Reversal risk: NVDA still has strong fundamentals. A surprise earnings beat or softened U.S.-China tension could spark a sharp bounce • Volatility: This is not a set-and-forget play. $NVD can swing violently Conclusion For me, $NVD is the precision instrument to ride NVDA’s potential breakdown. It aligns with everything I’m seeing, technical cracks, macro risk, and the options market’s $60M alarm bell. I’ll be watching $99.60 and $96.00 closely for entries, and managing this with discipline given its amplified structure. High risk, high reward, but that’s the edge. ❓❔How are you trading $NVDA based on narrative momentum, technical inflection points, or options market asymmetry & how are you weighting each in your conviction levels? 📢 Don’t miss out! Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets 🚀📈 I’m obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Let’s outsmart the market and stack those gains together! 🍀🍀🍀 Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀 @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerPicks @TigerWire @Daily_Discussion
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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