2008 and covid is about to repeat...
@KKLEE：$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ All eyes are on Tesla again as earnings season rolls in. With its stock price recently showing signs of stress and hovering near critical support levels, the burning question is: Can Tesla deliver another earnings beat like it did last April, or is a dip below $200 looming? The High Bar of April’s Earnings In April 2024, Tesla surprised the market by beating earnings expectations. The result helped temporarily lift the stock above short-term resistance levels, delighting bulls and silencing skeptics — at least momentarily. Back then, cost-cutting strategies, better-than-expected margins, and strong deliveries played a role in the beat. However, a year later, the environment has changed. A Tougher Landscape Tesla is now facing multiple headwinds: Increased competition from traditional automakers and Chinese EV brands like BYD and Nio. Slower global EV demand, especially in Europe and China, where economic softness persists. Margin pressure from continued price cuts to stay competitive. Regulatory uncertainty, including new tariffs and tax credit eligibility changes. These aren’t small concerns. Investors are worried that Tesla may not be able to keep its margins healthy without sacrificing volume or growth. What’s Priced In? Tesla shares have already been under pressure in early 2025. Weak delivery numbers in Q1, macro uncertainty, and Elon Musk’s distractions with other ventures (including AI and X) have created doubt about Tesla’s near-term performance. Some analysts believe a soft quarter is already priced in. But if Tesla falls short of expectations — especially on revenue growth or profit margins — the stock could easily slip below the psychologically important $200 level. The Technical Picture From a chartist’s view, $200 has become a key support level. If earnings disappoint and market sentiment turns sour, the next support may only come in around $180–$185. Breaking below $200 could trigger panic selling — or open up buying opportunities, depending on your outlook. On the flip side, a surprise beat could push the stock to retest $230 and beyond, especially if guided positively for the rest of the year. Key Factors to Watch in This Earnings: Margins: Have cost-cutting and automation preserved Tesla’s profit per car? Production & Deliveries: Did Q1 slump carry into Q2? Cybertruck Updates: Is the hype translating to revenue? AI & Robotaxi Buzz: Will Tesla hint at progress to shift sentiment? Outlook: Guidance for the rest of 2025 will be key for investor confidence. Bulls vs. Bears Bulls argue that Tesla’s long-term innovation pipeline — from Full Self Driving to Dojo and the energy business — remains undervalued. They believe the stock is currently oversold and any earnings dip is a buying opportunity. Bears, on the other hand, warn that the glory days of hypergrowth are over. They highlight the inconsistency in delivery volumes, weakening brand loyalty in China, and Musk's spreading focus across too many projects. My Take This earnings report is more than just numbers — it's a sentiment reset. If Tesla wants to keep its bull case alive, it needs to show strength despite the macro challenges. But if the company underwhelms, $200 might not hold. So… can Tesla repeat last April’s surprise? It’s possible — but investors better buckle up. Whether you're holding long, planning to buy the dip, or waiting on the sidelines, this could be a decisive moment for Tesla's 2025 narrative. Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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