Dollar Bashing - The beginning of the end?

USD is in trouble... I have said that 2 years ago (dated April 2023) in a series of articles titled, "US pushes China towards world dominance Series (5 Parts Series)". 

Not sure if anyone had read that, not to mention remember those... Having said that, when I wrote those, even though I had mentioned Donald Trump as one of the main culprit for the demise of the dollar, the current scenario is not one I had predicted. The rest of those 5 part-series remains intact. I think 🐯 should give those articles another review and share with the readers! @TigerStars  I would love to share them here again (but not sure how to link them). Each article is a heavyweight on their own right and worth a read... I will probably repost them, so hopefully you can find them...

I won't touch any of those pointers in details here. Just touch-and-go... with current day updates on USD strength (or lack of) and reasons for it.

First, I will start with some common charts of interest to illustrate my points.

There are two timeframes for the currency pairs indication. The first is the early stage of Donald Trump's tariffs declaration. I use 3-Mar 2025 as that gauge (turning point for most major currency pairs). The second time point is 9-Apr 2025, a good 10 days (trading day) window to today's. I will summarise them as follows:

USD has been falling and the fall has in fact accelerated within these 10 trading days. Even a weak currency like AUD is seeing big gains of 8% within this 10 days window. JPY and EUR, the two other "safe haven" currencies are seeing strong demands. 

Do you need more evidence for the USD decline?

What about gold breaking all time high against USD repeatedly?

Even silver is recovering well... 

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ supposedly safe... Nobody is interested in 20 years Treasury bonds... Not now, at least this is what is showing in the rising yield to entice investors...

However, the most damning evidence comes from an unexpected corner... 

Yup, even bitcoin is spiking... and this time, it's not due to the increase in speculative spirit, as evidenced in the drip in Nasdaq. Rather, it's the dip in confidence in USD! Surprise... Surprise...

So what happened lately? It's one event after the next. With Donald Trump at the helm, it's been ever a boring day 😈😜😉! Of course there's the Donald Trump's tariff wars against everyone. 

Yup, all the above points to one common theme, the loss in confidence in Donald Trump, US administration and ... you probably guessed it, USD... Investors crave for stability, which is not something we can associate with Donald Trump or his administration, which switch tabs on the fly... Donald Trump could have it all planned out in his head 🗣️, but it is all opaque and lacking in direction or transparency.

Donald Trump continues to boast that everyone is rushing to his trade talks and giving in to US. Try telling that to the bondholders! 

Is this the end of the dominance of USD? I would say no... Not yet... But as the title suggested, it's the beginning of the end.

So what should we do to prepare or take advantage of the event?

Buy gold and silver, physical or miners. Note that not all miners are created equally (I have mentioned this in my other articles). Go for the big ones for now. E.g. those royalty miners like $WHEATON PRECIOUS METALS CORP.(WPM.UK)$ or $Barrick Gold Corp(GOLD)$ or $Newmont Mining(NEM)$ .

To a lesser extent, I didn't think I would say this, get a little bitcoin?       It seems more stable at the moment than Trump's induced chaotic situation evolving around USD.

Stay away from Treasury for now. Wait for clarity. Some big Treasury buyers have been selling. Some speculate China might be selling in this tariff war. We don't know yet. But if Donald Trump is creating more instability, I am sure more people will want to find alternatives to USD and its bonds.

Lighten on risky US based investment in general. I won't call pivoting to China, but I go slow in those that depends very much on US.

Watch this space...

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